Historical FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasts: historical-senate-predictions.csv
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
103 rows where result = "Win"
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Suggested facets: year, forecast_prob
Link | rowid ▼ | state | year | candidate | forecast_prob | result | winflag |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | Alabama | 2008 | Sessions | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
3 | 3 | Alabama | 2010 | Shelby | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
5 | 5 | Alaska | 2008 | Begich | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
8 | 8 | Alaska | 2010 | Murkowski | 0.21 | Win | 1 |
10 | 10 | Arizona | 2010 | Glassman | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
12 | 12 | Arizona | 2012 | Flake | 0.96 | Win | 1 |
14 | 14 | Arkansas | 2008 | Pryor | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
15 | 15 | Arkansas | 2010 | Boozman | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
17 | 17 | California | 2012 | Feinstein | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
19 | 19 | Colorado | 2008 | M. Udall | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
22 | 22 | Colorado | 2010 | Bennett | 0.35 | Win | 1 |
23 | 23 | Connecticut | 2010 | Blumenthal | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
25 | 25 | Connecticut | 2012 | Murphy | 0.96 | Win | 1 |
27 | 27 | Delaware | 2008 | Biden | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
29 | 29 | Delaware | 2010 | Coons | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
31 | 31 | Delaware | 2012 | Carper | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
33 | 33 | Florida | 2010 | Rubio | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
36 | 36 | Florida | 2012 | Nelson | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
38 | 38 | Georgia | 2008 | Chambilss | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
40 | 40 | Georgia | 2010 | Isakson | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
42 | 42 | Hawaii | 2010 | Inouye | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
44 | 44 | Hawaii | 2012 | Hirono | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
46 | 46 | Idaho | 2008 | Risch | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
48 | 48 | Idaho | 2010 | Crapo | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
50 | 50 | Illinois | 2008 | Durbin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
52 | 52 | Illinois | 2010 | Kirk | 0.69 | Win | 1 |
54 | 54 | Indiana | 2010 | Coats | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
56 | 56 | Indiana | 2012 | Donnelly | 0.7 | Win | 1 |
58 | 58 | Iowa | 2008 | Harkin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
60 | 60 | Iowa | 2010 | Grassley | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
62 | 62 | Kansas | 2008 | Roberts | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
64 | 64 | Kansas | 2010 | Moran | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
66 | 66 | Kentucky | 2008 | McConnell | 0.92 | Win | 1 |
68 | 68 | Kentucky | 2010 | Paul | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
70 | 70 | Louisiana | 2008 | Landireu | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
72 | 72 | Louisiana | 2010 | Vitter | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
74 | 74 | Maine | 2008 | Collins | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
76 | 76 | Maine | 2012 | King | 0.93 | Win | 1 |
79 | 79 | Maryland | 2010 | Murkowski | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
81 | 81 | Maryland | 2012 | Cardin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
83 | 83 | Massachusetts | 2008 | Kerry | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
85 | 85 | Massachusetts | 2012 | Warren | 0.94 | Win | 1 |
87 | 87 | Michigan | 2008 | Levin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
89 | 89 | Michigan | 2012 | Stabenow | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
91 | 91 | Minnesota | 2008 | Franken | 0.52 | Win | 1 |
93 | 93 | Minnesota | 2012 | Klobuchar | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
95 | 95 | Mississippi | 2008 | Cochran | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
97 | 97 | Mississippi | 2012 | Wicker | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
99 | 99 | Mississippi (special election) | 2008 | Wicker | 0.94 | Win | 1 |
101 | 101 | Missouri | 2010 | Blunt | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
103 | 103 | Missouri | 2012 | McCaskill | 0.98 | Win | 1 |
105 | 105 | Montana | 2008 | Baucus | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
107 | 107 | Montana | 2012 | Rehberg | 0.66 | Win | 1 |
109 | 109 | Nebraska | 2008 | Johanns | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
111 | 111 | Nebraska | 2012 | Fischer | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
114 | 114 | Nevada | 2010 | Reid | 0.17 | Win | 1 |
115 | 115 | Nevada | 2012 | Heller | 0.83 | Win | 1 |
117 | 117 | New Hampshire | 2008 | Shaheen | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
119 | 119 | New Hampshire | 2010 | Ayotte | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
121 | 121 | New Jersey | 2008 | Lautenberg | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
123 | 123 | New Jersey | 2012 | Menendez | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
125 | 125 | New Mexico | 2008 | T. Udall | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
127 | 127 | New Mexico | 2012 | Heinrich | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
129 | 129 | New York | 2010 | Schumer | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
131 | 131 | New York | 2012 | Gillibrand | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
133 | 133 | New York (special election) | 2010 | Gillibrand | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
135 | 135 | North Carolina | 2008 | Hagan | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
137 | 137 | North Carolina | 2010 | Burr | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
139 | 139 | North Dakota | 2010 | Hoeven | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
142 | 142 | North Dakota | 2012 | Heitkamp | 0.08 | Win | 1 |
143 | 143 | Ohio | 2010 | Portman | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
145 | 145 | Ohio | 2012 | Brown | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
147 | 147 | Oklahoma | 2008 | Inhofe | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
149 | 149 | Oklahoma | 2010 | Coburn | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
151 | 151 | Oregon | 2008 | Merkley | 0.92 | Win | 1 |
153 | 153 | Oregon | 2010 | Wyden | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
155 | 155 | Pennsylvania | 2010 | Toomey | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
157 | 157 | Pennsylvania | 2012 | Casey | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
159 | 159 | Rhode Island | 2008 | Reed | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
161 | 161 | Rhode Island | 2012 | Whitehouse | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
163 | 163 | South Carolina | 2008 | Graham | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
165 | 165 | South Carolina | 2010 | DeMint | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
167 | 167 | South Dakota | 2008 | Johnson | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
169 | 169 | South Dakota | 2010 | Thune | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
170 | 170 | Tennessee | 2008 | Alexander | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
172 | 172 | Tennessee | 2012 | Corker | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
174 | 174 | Texas | 2008 | Cornyn | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
176 | 176 | Texas | 2012 | Cruz | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
178 | 178 | Utah | 2010 | Lee | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
180 | 180 | Utah | 2012 | Hatch | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
182 | 182 | Vermont | 2010 | Leahy | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
184 | 184 | Vermont | 2012 | Sanders | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
186 | 186 | Virginia | 2008 | Warner | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
188 | 188 | Virginia | 2012 | Kaine | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
190 | 190 | Washington | 2010 | Murray | 0.8 | Win | 1 |
192 | 192 | Washington | 2012 | Cantwell | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
194 | 194 | West Virginia | 2010 | Manchin | 0.89 | Win | 1 |
196 | 196 | West Virginia | 2012 | Manchin | 0.92 | Win | 1 |
198 | 198 | Wisconsin | 2010 | Johnson | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
200 | 200 | Wisconsin | 2012 | Thompson | 0.79 | Win | 1 |
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CREATE TABLE "forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions" ( "state" TEXT, "year" INTEGER, "candidate" TEXT, "forecast_prob" REAL, "result" TEXT, "winflag" INTEGER );