Historical FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasts: historical-senate-predictions.csv
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
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Link | rowid ▼ | state | year | candidate | forecast_prob | result | winflag |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
101 | 101 | Missouri | 2010 | Blunt | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
102 | 102 | Missouri | 2010 | Carnahan | 0.01 | Loss | 0 |
103 | 103 | Missouri | 2012 | McCaskill | 0.98 | Win | 1 |
104 | 104 | Missouri | 2012 | Akin | 0.02 | Loss | 0 |
105 | 105 | Montana | 2008 | Baucus | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
106 | 106 | Montana | 2008 | Kelleher | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
107 | 107 | Montana | 2012 | Rehberg | 0.66 | Win | 1 |
108 | 108 | Montana | 2012 | Tester | 0.34 | Loss | 0 |
109 | 109 | Nebraska | 2008 | Johanns | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
110 | 110 | Nebraska | 2008 | Kleeb | 0.01 | Lose | 0 |
111 | 111 | Nebraska | 2012 | Fischer | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
112 | 112 | Nebraska | 2012 | Kerrey | 0.01 | Loss | 0 |
113 | 113 | Nevada | 2010 | Angle | 0.83 | Loss | 0 |
114 | 114 | Nevada | 2010 | Reid | 0.17 | Win | 1 |
115 | 115 | Nevada | 2012 | Heller | 0.83 | Win | 1 |
116 | 116 | Nevada | 2012 | Berkeley | 0.17 | Loss | 0 |
117 | 117 | New Hampshire | 2008 | Shaheen | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
118 | 118 | New Hampshire | 2008 | Sununu | 0.01 | Lose | 0 |
119 | 119 | New Hampshire | 2010 | Ayotte | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
120 | 120 | New Hampshire | 2010 | Hodes | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
121 | 121 | New Jersey | 2008 | Lautenberg | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
122 | 122 | New Jersey | 2008 | Zimmer | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
123 | 123 | New Jersey | 2012 | Menendez | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
124 | 124 | New Jersey | 2012 | Kyrillos | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
125 | 125 | New Mexico | 2008 | T. Udall | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
126 | 126 | New Mexico | 2008 | Pearce | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
127 | 127 | New Mexico | 2012 | Heinrich | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
128 | 128 | New Mexico | 2012 | Wilson | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
129 | 129 | New York | 2010 | Schumer | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
130 | 130 | New York | 2010 | Townsend | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
131 | 131 | New York | 2012 | Gillibrand | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
132 | 132 | New York | 2012 | Long | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
133 | 133 | New York (special election) | 2010 | Gillibrand | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
134 | 134 | New York (special election) | 2010 | DioGuardi | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
135 | 135 | North Carolina | 2008 | Hagan | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
136 | 136 | North Carolina | 2008 | Dole | 0.12 | Lose | 0 |
137 | 137 | North Carolina | 2010 | Burr | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
138 | 138 | North Carolina | 2010 | Marshall | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
139 | 139 | North Dakota | 2010 | Hoeven | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
140 | 140 | North Dakota | 2010 | Potter | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
141 | 141 | North Dakota | 2012 | Berg | 0.92 | Loss | 0 |
142 | 142 | North Dakota | 2012 | Heitkamp | 0.08 | Win | 1 |
143 | 143 | Ohio | 2010 | Portman | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
144 | 144 | Ohio | 2010 | Fisher | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
145 | 145 | Ohio | 2012 | Brown | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
146 | 146 | Ohio | 2012 | Mandel | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
147 | 147 | Oklahoma | 2008 | Inhofe | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
148 | 148 | Oklahoma | 2008 | Rice | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
149 | 149 | Oklahoma | 2010 | Coburn | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
150 | 150 | Oklahoma | 2010 | Rogers | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
151 | 151 | Oregon | 2008 | Merkley | 0.92 | Win | 1 |
152 | 152 | Oregon | 2008 | Smith | 0.08 | Lose | 0 |
153 | 153 | Oregon | 2010 | Wyden | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
154 | 154 | Oregon | 2010 | Huffman | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
155 | 155 | Pennsylvania | 2010 | Toomey | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
156 | 156 | Pennsylvania | 2010 | Sestak | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
157 | 157 | Pennsylvania | 2012 | Casey | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
158 | 158 | Pennsylvania | 2012 | Smith | 0.01 | Loss | 0 |
159 | 159 | Rhode Island | 2008 | Reed | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
160 | 160 | Rhode Island | 2008 | Tingle | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
161 | 161 | Rhode Island | 2012 | Whitehouse | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
162 | 162 | Rhode Island | 2012 | Hinkley | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
163 | 163 | South Carolina | 2008 | Graham | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
164 | 164 | South Carolina | 2008 | Conley | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
165 | 165 | South Carolina | 2010 | DeMint | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
166 | 166 | South Carolina | 2010 | Greene | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
167 | 167 | South Dakota | 2008 | Johnson | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
168 | 168 | South Dakota | 2008 | Dykstra | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
169 | 169 | South Dakota | 2010 | Thune | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
170 | 170 | Tennessee | 2008 | Alexander | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
171 | 171 | Tennessee | 2008 | Tuke | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
172 | 172 | Tennessee | 2012 | Corker | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
173 | 173 | Tennessee | 2012 | Clayton | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
174 | 174 | Texas | 2008 | Cornyn | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
175 | 175 | Texas | 2008 | Noriega | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
176 | 176 | Texas | 2012 | Cruz | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
177 | 177 | Texas | 2012 | Sadler | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
178 | 178 | Utah | 2010 | Lee | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
179 | 179 | Utah | 2010 | Granato | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
180 | 180 | Utah | 2012 | Hatch | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
181 | 181 | Utah | 2012 | Lowell | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
182 | 182 | Vermont | 2010 | Leahy | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
183 | 183 | Vermont | 2010 | Britton | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
184 | 184 | Vermont | 2012 | Sanders | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
185 | 185 | Vermont | 2012 | MacGovern | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
186 | 186 | Virginia | 2008 | Warner | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
187 | 187 | Virginia | 2008 | Gilmore | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
188 | 188 | Virginia | 2012 | Kaine | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
189 | 189 | Virginia | 2012 | Allen | 0.12 | Loss | 0 |
190 | 190 | Washington | 2010 | Murray | 0.8 | Win | 1 |
191 | 191 | Washington | 2010 | Rossi | 0.2 | Loss | 0 |
192 | 192 | Washington | 2012 | Cantwell | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
193 | 193 | Washington | 2012 | Baumgartner | 0.12 | Loss | 0 |
194 | 194 | West Virginia | 2010 | Manchin | 0.89 | Win | 1 |
195 | 195 | West Virginia | 2010 | Raese | 0.11 | Loss | 0 |
196 | 196 | West Virginia | 2012 | Manchin | 0.92 | Win | 1 |
197 | 197 | West Virginia | 2012 | Raese | 0.08 | Loss | 0 |
198 | 198 | Wisconsin | 2010 | Johnson | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
199 | 199 | Wisconsin | 2010 | Feingold | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
200 | 200 | Wisconsin | 2012 | Thompson | 0.79 | Win | 1 |
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CREATE TABLE "forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions" ( "state" TEXT, "year" INTEGER, "candidate" TEXT, "forecast_prob" REAL, "result" TEXT, "winflag" INTEGER );