NBA Draft 2015: historical_projections.csv

This table contains data behind the story Projecting The Top 50 Players In The 2015 NBA Draft Class.

historical_projections.csv contains historical results of the NBA draft projection model, 2001-2015.

Header Definition
Player Player name
Position The player's position going into the draft
ID The player's identification code
Draft Year The year the player was eligible for the NBA draft
Projected SPM The model's projected statistical plus/minus over years 2-5 of the player's NBA career
Superstar Probability of becoming a superstar player (1 per draft, SPM >= +3.3)
Starter Probability of becoming a starting-caliber player (10 per draft, SPM >= +0.5)
Role Player Probability of becoming a role player (25 per draft, SPM >= -1.4)
Bust Probability of becoming a bust (everyone else, SPM < -1.4)

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

1,090 rows sorted by Projected SPM

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Suggested facets: Position, Draft Year

Link rowid Player Position ID Draft Year Projected SPM ▼ Superstar Starter Role Player Bust
1090 Calvin Bowman C calvin-bowman 2001 -1.684669305 0.0 0.005068189 0.168629227 0.826302584
976 Stephane Pelle PF stephane-pelle 2003 -1.6084829390000002 0.0 0.011400394 0.19709041300000002 0.791509193
975 Will McDonald C will-mcdonald 2003 -1.6008660209999999 0.000530311 0.006731641 0.204776111 0.7879619379999999
1031 Randy Holcomb SF randy-holcomb 2002 -1.553920803 0.0 0.004260368 0.24240426699999998 0.753335366
1089 Greg Stevenson SG greg-stevenson 2001 -1.529187586 0.0 0.019692742 0.238860882 0.741446376
642 Gary Forbes SF gary-forbes 2008 -1.522391895 0.0 0.005825426 0.26656472 0.7276098540000001
488 Michael Washington PF michael-washington 2010 -1.517421151 0.000808707 0.007380215999999999 0.255219549 0.7365915279999999
790 Louis Amundson PF louis-amundson 2006 -1.5152007280000002 0.0 0.010102224 0.24613356100000003 0.743764216
898 Justin Reed SF justin-reed 2004 -1.510119446 0.0008083210000000001 0.013231625 0.23764098600000003 0.7483190679999999
974 Theron Smith PF theron-smith 2003 -1.508985772 0.000283402 0.009467033 0.263891645 0.72635792
487 Jerome Jordan C jerome-jordan 2010 -1.501729544 0.0 0.019790108 0.245241844 0.734968049
1088 Ruben Boumtje Boumtje C ruben-boumtje-boumtje 2001 -1.494069369 0.0 0.020653307 0.236919285 0.742427408
897 Andre Brown PF andre-brown 2004 -1.4940104319999998 0.0 0.01480925 0.26469946699999997 0.720491283
1087 Brandon Wolfram SF brandon-wolfram 2001 -1.4934599640000001 0.000271229 0.011532478999999998 0.271560245 0.716636046
896 Herve Lamizana SF herve-lamizana 2004 -1.492018038 0.000107081 0.011275998999999998 0.255742468 0.7328744509999999
789 Pops Mensah-Bonsu PF pops-mensah-bonsu 2006 -1.489407128 0.0 0.013397888 0.270303033 0.716299079
1086 Terrell Lyday SG terrell-lyday 2001 -1.486319252 0.001152278 0.018302548000000002 0.26103521 0.7195099640000001
973 Ronald Dupree SF ronald-dupree 2003 -1.484306785 7.83914e-05 0.015760512 0.262486393 0.7216747040000001
972 Earl Barron C earl-barron 2003 -1.4842602630000001 0.0 0.019319664 0.24714443100000003 0.733535904
324 Robert Sacre C robert-sacre 2012 -1.476022096 0.00040331300000000003 0.020722041 0.24858155899999998 0.7302930870000001
1030 Chris Owens PF chris-owens 2002 -1.475125115 0.00014254600000000001 0.017604544 0.257042074 0.7252108359999999
971 Raitis Grafs PF raitis-grafs 2003 -1.471849512 0.0 0.015592251000000001 0.26238325 0.7220244990000001
713 Zabian Dowdell PG zabian-dowdell 2007 -1.462475829 0.000268062 0.023533727 0.258410449 0.717787762
1085 Eric Chenowith C eric-chenowith 2001 -1.4621311380000002 0.000548085 0.030221655 0.23620369300000002 0.733026567
1084 Cookie Belcher PG cookie-belcher 2001 -1.453962107 0.003407041 0.038350711 0.227701564 0.730540684
895 Michel Morandais SG michel-morandais 2004 -1.453550541 0.000559714 0.011136127 0.295734895 0.6925692640000001
641 Sean Singletary PG sean-singletary 2008 -1.4488087219999999 0.0 0.021486277 0.268218792 0.710294932
847 Donell Taylor PG donell-taylor 2005 -1.4485219480000002 0.0005895669999999999 0.026319807999999997 0.257966299 0.715124326
712 Mohamed Abukar C mohamed-abukar 2007 -1.446777065 0.0 0.015200466999999999 0.28348395 0.701315583
846 Jared Homan C jared-homan 2005 -1.445320444 0.000228247 0.016002989 0.269746414 0.71402235
894 Jackson Vroman C jackson-vroman 2004 -1.438614905 0.0 0.025703336 0.262259775 0.71203689
486 Artsiom Parakhouski C artsiom-parakhouski 2010 -1.4382831669999998 0.000448575 0.023932434 0.259951881 0.71566711
404 Chris Wright SF 23-chris-wright 2011 -1.4379358819999999 0.0 0.018207457 0.264428086 0.7173644570000001
158 Dwight Powell PF dwight-powell 2014 -1.437694654 0.0 0.021705207999999997 0.264808597 0.713486196
711 Mario Boggan PF mario-boggan 2007 -1.4315122180000002 0.0 0.011855878 0.29160638899999997 0.6965377340000001
893 Bernard Robinson Jr. SF bernard-robinson-jr 2004 -1.423429914 0.000608672 0.0179425 0.29126663199999997 0.690182196
710 Brandon Heath PG brandon-heath 2007 -1.4228424259999999 0.0 0.013547162 0.307966577 0.678486261
1029 Altron Jackson SG altron-jackson 2002 -1.422663019 0.0 0.030191467000000003 0.28300902899999997 0.686799504
640 Richard Roby SG richard-roby 2008 -1.418729044 0.0 0.012165813999999999 0.315138756 0.67269543
970 Britton Johnsen SF britton-johnsen 2003 -1.416293089 0.000220205 0.017034537 0.29497750699999997 0.687767751
1028 Lonnie Jones C lonnie-jones 2002 -1.4152443730000002 0.0 0.019966257 0.289306864 0.6907268790000001
485 Marquis Gilstrap SF marquis-gilstrap 2010 -1.413948965 0.0 0.005111111 0.316222222 0.678666667
969 Ron Slay PF ron-slay 2003 -1.41177197 0.0 0.016208283 0.302721174 0.6810705420000001
239 Zeke Marshall C zeke-marshall 2013 -1.4109497009999998 0.0 0.019962324 0.281362774 0.698674902
892 Arthur Johnson PF arthur-johnson 2004 -1.4028537269999999 0.0 0.023761877999999997 0.293690383 0.6825477390000001
891 Jaime Lloreda PF jaime-lloreda 2004 -1.402798873 0.0 0.021976372 0.296113091 0.681910537
890 Matt Freije SF matt-freije 2004 -1.4005860280000002 0.0 0.024232549 0.307632509 0.668134942
889 Marcus Moore PG 1-marcus-moore 2004 -1.399979035 0.0 0.014608963 0.307857596 0.677533442
1027 Ryan Humphrey PF ryan-humphrey 2002 -1.398357483 0.001306259 0.031400613 0.277781353 0.6895117759999999
1083 Terry Black SF terry-black 2001 -1.3981193019999998 0.0006797000000000001 0.022433509 0.291499208 0.685387583
968 Joel Cornette PF joel-cornette 2003 -1.3971905480000002 0.000442022 0.018047944 0.305868125 0.67564191
845 Rawle Marshall SF rawle-marshall 2005 -1.3966612680000001 0.000302776 0.015405012 0.31261218 0.671680032
888 Lionel Chalmers PG lionel-chalmers 2004 -1.395950201 0.0 0.026293055 0.28962562199999997 0.684081323
788 Danilo Pinnock SG danilo-pinnock 2006 -1.393336168 0.000764545 0.022109106 0.307882068 0.6692442820000001
887 John Edwards C john-edwards 2004 -1.39108866 8.79483e-05 0.022227027000000003 0.303161052 0.674523973
568 Luke Nevill C luke-nevill 2009 -1.387269572 0.001734331 0.019831207 0.301651377 0.676783085
787 Nik Caner-Medley SF nik-caner-medley 2006 -1.3849688169999999 0.000377481 0.025429712 0.30545366399999996 0.6687391429999999
639 Will Daniels SF will-daniels 2008 -1.38331535 0.0003185 0.013982913000000001 0.32645767600000003 0.659240911
1082 Sean Lampley SF sean-lampley 2001 -1.37991231 0.000797273 0.018403013 0.30888154100000004 0.671918173
323 Augustus Gilchrist C augustus-gilchrist 2012 -1.3799116130000002 0.0 0.01447288 0.30558735 0.67993977
967 Kueth Duany SG kueth-duany 2003 -1.379825204 0.0 0.023966324 0.318897768 0.657135908
403 Keith Benson C keith-benson 2011 -1.379251302 0.000125438 0.031224406 0.288214225 0.680435931
157 Alec Brown C alec-brown 2014 -1.3758429069999998 0.00034759 0.017325302 0.303191714 0.679135395
786 Terence Dials PF terence-dials 2006 -1.3727420819999998 0.000493327 0.022085591 0.306931328 0.670489753
1026 Chris Christoffersen C chris-christoffersen 2002 -1.369482101 0.0 0.03940882 0.278965563 0.681625618
785 Christian Maraker PF christian-maraker 2006 -1.3690541280000001 0.00017010400000000002 0.00611271 0.33785093899999996 0.6558662470000001
567 Taylor Griffin SF taylor-griffin 2009 -1.3685449140000001 0.0 0.019771761000000002 0.31883721600000003 0.661391023
566 Jack McClinton SG jack-mcclinton 2009 -1.3680582609999998 0.0 0.024756245 0.318503842 0.656739913
966 Erwin Dudley PF erwin-dudley 2003 -1.367946366 0.0 0.018736775 0.314752427 0.666510797
238 Romero Osby PF romero-osby 2013 -1.367231132 0.0 0.014427001000000002 0.318924131 0.666648869
784 Steven Smith SF steven-smith 2006 -1.365488034 0.0007637480000000001 0.008598138 0.339355465 0.651282649
783 Matt Haryasz PF matt-haryasz 2006 -1.365337656 0.0 0.011389256 0.323808303 0.664802441
1025 Clarence Gilbert PG clarence-gilbert 2002 -1.3622712780000001 0.0 0.010615575 0.346155426 0.643228999
709 D.J. Strawberry SG dj-strawberry 2007 -1.362045295 0.0009746980000000001 0.031569322000000004 0.30865706600000004 0.6587989129999999
965 Ugonna Onyekwe SF ugonna-onyekwe 2003 -1.360308461 0.000214382 0.007982318 0.335233703 0.6565695979999999
322 Garrett Stutz C garrett-stutz 2012 -1.359133317 0.00012932700000000002 0.030894867000000003 0.289284972 0.6796908340000001
1081 Dean Oliver PG dean-oliver 2001 -1.359015404 0.000144853 0.028928405 0.309891274 0.661035468
964 Wesley Wilson PF wesley-wilson 2003 -1.3589524169999998 0.0 0.005860485 0.342009671 0.652129844
782 Solomon Jones C solomon-jones 2006 -1.3584936140000001 0.0 0.033607648999999996 0.277170314 0.6892220370000001
565 Josh Heytvelt PF josh-heytvelt 2009 -1.358348396 0.0 0.037205437 0.305337223 0.65745734
484 Mac Koshwal C mac-koshwal 2010 -1.358261792 0.0003658 0.018632702 0.310939688 0.67006181
844 Deji Akindele C deji-akindele 2005 -1.3566298140000002 0.000232516 0.020980167 0.29741893399999997 0.681368383
237 Jackie Carmichael PF jackie-carmichael 2013 -1.3561071880000002 0.000141893 0.014838131999999999 0.324852085 0.66016789
963 Travis Hansen SG travis-hansen 2003 -1.355053967 0.000528736 0.022118081 0.328288245 0.649064938
321 Josh Owens PF josh-owens 2012 -1.3522472330000002 0.0 0.019032029 0.321945281 0.65902269
708 Quinton Hosley SG quinton-hosley 2007 -1.350532878 0.0 0.017552802 0.32187025399999997 0.660576945
1080 Monty Mack SG monty-mack 2001 -1.3489963280000001 0.000139834 0.016068196 0.35272669700000003 0.6310652720000001
962 Willie Green SG willie-green 2003 -1.3486290769999998 0.001245667 0.016560229 0.36041085100000003 0.6217832529999999
886 David Young SG david-young 2004 -1.3470163080000002 0.000125864 0.022014507000000003 0.348832549 0.62902708
638 DeVon Hardin C devon-hardin 2008 -1.3444244330000001 8.472819999999999e-05 0.031545715 0.29419824899999997 0.674171308
961 Joe Shipp SF joe-shipp 2003 -1.3432348319999998 0.0 0.020019012 0.344638176 0.635342812
564 Chris Johnson C 21-chris-johnson 2009 -1.3423116019999999 0.0 0.017125397 0.33607554700000003 0.646799056
320 Xavier Gibson PF xavier-gibson 2012 -1.341851105 0.0 0.0274474 0.303542018 0.6690105820000001
707 Sammy Mejia SG sammy-mejia 2007 -1.341460216 0.000689575 0.013929536000000001 0.349743728 0.635637161
319 Yancy Gates PF yancy-gates 2012 -1.339430576 0.00021323 0.03164911 0.298019782 0.670117878
1024 Marvin O'Connor SG marvin-o-connor 2002 -1.338877206 0.000338553 0.015606567 0.358181019 0.62587386
781 Kenny Adeleke PF kenny-adeleke 2006 -1.338024761 0.000231108 0.024555577999999998 0.30070863600000003 0.674504678
843 Alex Acker SG alex-acker 2005 -1.336590807 0.0 0.016480746 0.35724426 0.626274995
780 Yemi Nicholson C yemi-nicholson 2006 -1.33638633 0.000463321 0.013870776999999999 0.33483646699999997 0.650829435
483 Ben Uzoh PG ben-uzoh 2010 -1.3362349359999999 9.26118e-05 0.023823987 0.33403788100000004 0.64204552

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CREATE TABLE "nba-draft-2015/historical_projections" (
"Player" TEXT,
  "Position" TEXT,
  "ID" TEXT,
  "Draft Year" INTEGER,
  "Projected SPM" REAL,
  "Superstar" REAL,
  "Starter" REAL,
  "Role Player" REAL,
  "Bust" REAL
);
Powered by Datasette · Query took 107.131ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub