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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140611-132709.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.43 1.1208 1.1636 0.0631 0.2032 0.03851712280305 0.007996157433279001 0.0010205568506439998 0.000126121865295
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2966 0.8879 0.0339 0.1958 0.05913824518343 0.015941164411905 0.0024991683563070004 0.00044187759117100004
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3227 0.6993 0.0945 0.2622 0.100049602883884 0.018857900330671 0.005468305054972001 0.001068778788604
19 Greece GRE c 76.78 1.3357 0.5395 0.1458 0.3919 0.15676752618439802 0.039476103888973 0.012603960830937 0.002504080622099
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4798 0.9904 0.0079 0.2272 0.050187385575924004 0.016983089601479998 0.0043800391888000004 0.000585434861474
25 Mexico MEX a 76.95 1.5534 0.6888 0.0233 0.398 0.11304230529590899 0.04676631291769599 0.015304940195237 0.0027350708629200002
20 Honduras HON e 69.62 1.5622 1.1624 0.055 0.1984 0.047903360896607 0.014064631295591 0.0029890101525179994 0.000414407016756
3 Australia AUS b 69.45 1.6395 1.2349 0.0151 0.0762 0.009646462233817 0.0029425240120959997 0.000670655788628 9.3109051375e-05
29 Russia RUS h 79.03 1.6564 0.6236 0.3104 0.6332 0.23686787656470998 0.08660687611284901 0.024586170958073 0.005797379778698
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6677 0.8861 0.0712 0.3174 0.11734072473834001 0.038951318733236 0.008085589120883 0.0017682457035670001
24 South Korea KOR h 72.38 1.6901 1.0877 0.1484 0.3948 0.10399702416798301 0.029226444640991004 0.005528877381619999 0.0009588325313939999
12 Croatia CRO a 75.72 1.7517 0.9161 0.0188 0.3808 0.102780192060054 0.041272006247888 0.012855375488164 0.00217049070814
18 Ghana GHA g 77.23 1.9076 0.9275 0.0814 0.3161 0.155059907343112 0.052657426561139996 0.015753947014718 0.0032246084293430003
22 Italy ITA d 79.49 1.9814 0.8195 0.2038 0.4577 0.217790424141203 0.05671650309182599 0.021080310411438 0.005310448215507
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.05 1.9844 0.9249 0.1686 0.4459 0.161334829335447 0.064760112460499 0.018915572842926998 0.0042877749880870005
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.65 2.0299 0.7683 0.2364 0.5583 0.23000043459208802 0.101267804170091 0.032383162168102 0.008657282801053
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0469999999999997 1.0139 0.0885 0.3228 0.16058814094289497 0.05572007206556 0.016831621472528 0.0035170411489019995
23 Japan JPN c 73.5 2.1313 1.3487 0.1069 0.3 0.106262132387176 0.02310822225633 0.006379715262849001 0.001025400304521
4 Belgium BEL h 81.97 2.1373 0.741 0.4781 0.7688 0.35153642347217307 0.148459308004488 0.054136397737394 0.014903717511312
28 Portugal POR g 81.02 2.1409 0.8161 0.1502 0.4805 0.26960893568604505 0.110292472220377 0.038370712452957 0.010010823367156
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1813 0.4528 0.5156 0.7794 0.457762506824671 0.14977942796423802 0.07336441803908501 0.028029927914407997
14 England ENG d 83.22 2.2079 0.6889 0.3474 0.6318 0.350894745784927 0.11991968975084899 0.052928232205708 0.016036478113867998
31 Uruguay URU d 83.35 2.2396 0.6998 0.3543 0.6483 0.366725218543659 0.128877408169174 0.057833786301492995 0.017892458359948002
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.9 2.2467 1.048 0.2317 0.5287 0.24374784325009 0.067887090450013 0.025095588667112003 0.0060437229471739995
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.31 2.3113 0.9861 0.1599 0.5589 0.261950024181117 0.11209784229783801 0.031610913342473 0.008963820648495002
26 Netherlands NED b 82.49 2.3128 0.8170000000000001 0.1543 0.4284 0.13929510996292702 0.073126049369133 0.031512227702374995 0.009363735915568001
16 France FRA e 86.12 2.4851 0.619 0.54 0.7974 0.452428491629849 0.245063184438084 0.09011250887365199 0.037191840395955
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6879 0.4468 0.4914 0.8003 0.45572353850681296 0.31096461981875606 0.18287990472042498 0.076761496863487
7 Chile CHI b 86.72 2.7113 0.7043 0.3392 0.6951 0.324846121913627 0.205733455034635 0.11033711304849 0.04189869577631399
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8541 0.4494 0.735 0.9279 0.6699038894430861 0.46815912986115293 0.28175775086722105 0.12779866073954302
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1937 0.7755 0.6799 0.8806 0.683824569020036 0.448736055292883 0.19690087869012804 0.106981061567489
6 Brazil BRA a 91.83 3.3686 0.5175 0.95 0.994 0.804478884450903 0.6975895970962471 0.5658225888121429 0.4534371746103761

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140611-132709" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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