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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-185551.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi

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Link rowid country country_id group spi ▼ spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1188 1.166 0.0604 0.2025 0.033958494636703 0.0060732718700589996 0.0008102548329860001 9.504702053700001e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.35 1.5065 1.1953 0.0052 0.0728 0.011770176631658 0.0035780927724940004 0.000866568322376 0.00010100101529899999
3 Australia AUS b 68.84 1.649 1.2804 0.0015 0.0178 0.0014613465859460001 0.000413483807868 7.9522913787e-05 1.1683349990999998e-05
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.02 1.3536 0.9693 0.0006 0.0297 0.005940434311439999 0.002030470323049 0.000464694760373 5.8379577385000005e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2978 0.8898 0.0232 0.1907 0.048478958985254 0.011702535575323999 0.001789024129255 0.00031766153259400005
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6882 1.0828 0.1401 0.3883 0.09746484836397 0.024151945995352003 0.004757862961663 0.0007999340479839999
23 Japan JPN c 73.12 2.0752 1.3316 0.0109 0.1017 0.039869289538932 0.010315449424544 0.002567346825284 0.000367113606747
19 Greece GRE c 74.35 1.2919999999999998 0.6577 0.0088 0.1492 0.061267865419609 0.017524671399561 0.004729749289274001 0.0007507555061589999
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.02 1.6593 0.8921 0.0489 0.3131 0.09959992354761 0.030016835202779 0.006075961528913001 0.001319672120529
12 Croatia CRO a 76.37 1.8136 0.9164 0.0027 0.3869 0.10647463924823901 0.04602830491616 0.013800073542905 0.0024171278227479998
18 Ghana GHA g 77.37 1.9046 0.9141 0.0549 0.358 0.173085410273908 0.051255460807084006 0.01696891720826 0.0033477947699250003
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.4 1.5919999999999999 0.6859 0.4098 0.7192 0.285826283528858 0.076810516363015 0.023864652452189997 0.004951435569137
25 Mexico MEX a 77.47 1.5187 0.6278 0.0321 0.5847 0.16737521681904097 0.07321068820373901 0.022613443582637994 0.004149813704427
32 USA USA g 77.53 2.0458 1.0036 0.0581 0.3685 0.18166784382418902 0.054667317898632 0.018353123835303003 0.0036853577688740003
29 Russia RUS h 78.95 1.6554 0.6267 0.2971 0.6311 0.22749489611123 0.074802874116765 0.021834205170477 0.005082348744604
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.11 2.2107 1.0052 0.2187 0.7867 0.39688700737914706 0.127206437141908 0.044135071741319004 0.010042402356661997
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.31 2.0712 0.8939 0.258 0.8045 0.276899895539729 0.11564777611766802 0.037575821228969006 0.008971614785076
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.78 1.9875 0.8012 0.0283 0.1947 0.059604688978297 0.02714079715222 0.010142816985543002 0.00232239061935
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.0362 0.8086 0.446 0.7458 0.337145321398305 0.106016997739415 0.037798354737165 0.009157158992596
31 Uruguay URU d 80.77 2.1806 0.8603 0.0608 0.2143 0.09414679830995401 0.024242881161266 0.009062891449640998 0.002694118130198
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.81 2.3194 0.9513 0.0274 0.5173 0.21131887629160104 0.080233239380854 0.019201986189349 0.006470734729127001
28 Portugal POR g 80.92 2.1411 0.8218 0.0135 0.2946 0.160752036494755 0.055045342800249995 0.023213380023521 0.005485369361556
4 Belgium BEL h 82.1 2.1462 0.7351 0.5024 0.7781 0.3614648922748979 0.13780178178126098 0.053452233666439 0.014542709591006
14 England ENG d 82.19 2.1702 0.7440000000000001 0.0834 0.3207 0.146184546579886 0.039463177425694 0.015529302882161 0.004906335701565
15 Spain ESP b 86.75 2.6107 0.6378 0.0269 0.2492 0.067937526034726 0.040235629848062004 0.020178446297349998 0.008923654881871999
7 Chile CHI b 86.77 2.7182 0.7020000000000001 0.3067 0.7784 0.32280704100429 0.20435595304354 0.104180378433815 0.040918291858245005
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8015 0.7438 0.6649 0.9546 0.536449662594409 0.35057365720384903 0.180433521596432 0.06626948353811599
16 France FRA e 87.49 2.6233 0.5744 0.7085 0.928 0.578281333123 0.31163601155924603 0.120472402092563 0.055770521066310995
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3961 0.4209 0.7616 0.9624 0.638672887845207 0.217910695564631 0.11100550854238199 0.04997640299600299
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1985 0.7763 0.8735 0.9789 0.7641115780204741 0.48930461307335993 0.20388676589229301 0.114718265121014
2 Argentina ARG f 90.51 2.9010000000000002 0.4164 0.9005 0.9789 0.7140461469028591 0.526942103896658 0.347532236725768 0.15911700984825
6 Brazil BRA a 91.61 3.3851 0.5567 0.9646 0.9987 0.7915541334019219 0.663660986433713 0.522623480159611 0.41225841026610904

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-185551" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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