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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-185551.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_defense

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Suggested facets: group

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense ▼ win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
2 Argentina ARG f 90.51 2.9010000000000002 0.4164 0.9005 0.9789 0.7140461469028591 0.526942103896658 0.347532236725768 0.15911700984825
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3961 0.4209 0.7616 0.9624 0.638672887845207 0.217910695564631 0.11100550854238199 0.04997640299600299
6 Brazil BRA a 91.61 3.3851 0.5567 0.9646 0.9987 0.7915541334019219 0.663660986433713 0.522623480159611 0.41225841026610904
16 France FRA e 87.49 2.6233 0.5744 0.7085 0.928 0.578281333123 0.31163601155924603 0.120472402092563 0.055770521066310995
29 Russia RUS h 78.95 1.6554 0.6267 0.2971 0.6311 0.22749489611123 0.074802874116765 0.021834205170477 0.005082348744604
25 Mexico MEX a 77.47 1.5187 0.6278 0.0321 0.5847 0.16737521681904097 0.07321068820373901 0.022613443582637994 0.004149813704427
15 Spain ESP b 86.75 2.6107 0.6378 0.0269 0.2492 0.067937526034726 0.040235629848062004 0.020178446297349998 0.008923654881871999
19 Greece GRE c 74.35 1.2919999999999998 0.6577 0.0088 0.1492 0.061267865419609 0.017524671399561 0.004729749289274001 0.0007507555061589999
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.4 1.5919999999999999 0.6859 0.4098 0.7192 0.285826283528858 0.076810516363015 0.023864652452189997 0.004951435569137
7 Chile CHI b 86.77 2.7182 0.7020000000000001 0.3067 0.7784 0.32280704100429 0.20435595304354 0.104180378433815 0.040918291858245005
4 Belgium BEL h 82.1 2.1462 0.7351 0.5024 0.7781 0.3614648922748979 0.13780178178126098 0.053452233666439 0.014542709591006
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8015 0.7438 0.6649 0.9546 0.536449662594409 0.35057365720384903 0.180433521596432 0.06626948353811599
14 England ENG d 82.19 2.1702 0.7440000000000001 0.0834 0.3207 0.146184546579886 0.039463177425694 0.015529302882161 0.004906335701565
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1985 0.7763 0.8735 0.9789 0.7641115780204741 0.48930461307335993 0.20388676589229301 0.114718265121014
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.78 1.9875 0.8012 0.0283 0.1947 0.059604688978297 0.02714079715222 0.010142816985543002 0.00232239061935
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.0362 0.8086 0.446 0.7458 0.337145321398305 0.106016997739415 0.037798354737165 0.009157158992596
28 Portugal POR g 80.92 2.1411 0.8218 0.0135 0.2946 0.160752036494755 0.055045342800249995 0.023213380023521 0.005485369361556
31 Uruguay URU d 80.77 2.1806 0.8603 0.0608 0.2143 0.09414679830995401 0.024242881161266 0.009062891449640998 0.002694118130198
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2978 0.8898 0.0232 0.1907 0.048478958985254 0.011702535575323999 0.001789024129255 0.00031766153259400005
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.02 1.6593 0.8921 0.0489 0.3131 0.09959992354761 0.030016835202779 0.006075961528913001 0.001319672120529
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.31 2.0712 0.8939 0.258 0.8045 0.276899895539729 0.11564777611766802 0.037575821228969006 0.008971614785076
18 Ghana GHA g 77.37 1.9046 0.9141 0.0549 0.358 0.173085410273908 0.051255460807084006 0.01696891720826 0.0033477947699250003
12 Croatia CRO a 76.37 1.8136 0.9164 0.0027 0.3869 0.10647463924823901 0.04602830491616 0.013800073542905 0.0024171278227479998
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.81 2.3194 0.9513 0.0274 0.5173 0.21131887629160104 0.080233239380854 0.019201986189349 0.006470734729127001
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.02 1.3536 0.9693 0.0006 0.0297 0.005940434311439999 0.002030470323049 0.000464694760373 5.8379577385000005e-05
32 USA USA g 77.53 2.0458 1.0036 0.0581 0.3685 0.18166784382418902 0.054667317898632 0.018353123835303003 0.0036853577688740003
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.11 2.2107 1.0052 0.2187 0.7867 0.39688700737914706 0.127206437141908 0.044135071741319004 0.010042402356661997
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6882 1.0828 0.1401 0.3883 0.09746484836397 0.024151945995352003 0.004757862961663 0.0007999340479839999
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1188 1.166 0.0604 0.2025 0.033958494636703 0.0060732718700589996 0.0008102548329860001 9.504702053700001e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.35 1.5065 1.1953 0.0052 0.0728 0.011770176631658 0.0035780927724940004 0.000866568322376 0.00010100101529899999
3 Australia AUS b 68.84 1.649 1.2804 0.0015 0.0178 0.0014613465859460001 0.000413483807868 7.9522913787e-05 1.1683349990999998e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.12 2.0752 1.3316 0.0109 0.1017 0.039869289538932 0.010315449424544 0.002567346825284 0.000367113606747

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-185551" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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