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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-185551.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by win_group

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Suggested facets: group

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group ▼ sixteen quarter semi cup win
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.02 1.3536 0.9693 0.0006 0.0297 0.005940434311439999 0.002030470323049 0.000464694760373 5.8379577385000005e-05
3 Australia AUS b 68.84 1.649 1.2804 0.0015 0.0178 0.0014613465859460001 0.000413483807868 7.9522913787e-05 1.1683349990999998e-05
12 Croatia CRO a 76.37 1.8136 0.9164 0.0027 0.3869 0.10647463924823901 0.04602830491616 0.013800073542905 0.0024171278227479998
20 Honduras HON e 68.35 1.5065 1.1953 0.0052 0.0728 0.011770176631658 0.0035780927724940004 0.000866568322376 0.00010100101529899999
19 Greece GRE c 74.35 1.2919999999999998 0.6577 0.0088 0.1492 0.061267865419609 0.017524671399561 0.004729749289274001 0.0007507555061589999
23 Japan JPN c 73.12 2.0752 1.3316 0.0109 0.1017 0.039869289538932 0.010315449424544 0.002567346825284 0.000367113606747
28 Portugal POR g 80.92 2.1411 0.8218 0.0135 0.2946 0.160752036494755 0.055045342800249995 0.023213380023521 0.005485369361556
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2978 0.8898 0.0232 0.1907 0.048478958985254 0.011702535575323999 0.001789024129255 0.00031766153259400005
15 Spain ESP b 86.75 2.6107 0.6378 0.0269 0.2492 0.067937526034726 0.040235629848062004 0.020178446297349998 0.008923654881871999
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.81 2.3194 0.9513 0.0274 0.5173 0.21131887629160104 0.080233239380854 0.019201986189349 0.006470734729127001
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.78 1.9875 0.8012 0.0283 0.1947 0.059604688978297 0.02714079715222 0.010142816985543002 0.00232239061935
25 Mexico MEX a 77.47 1.5187 0.6278 0.0321 0.5847 0.16737521681904097 0.07321068820373901 0.022613443582637994 0.004149813704427
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.02 1.6593 0.8921 0.0489 0.3131 0.09959992354761 0.030016835202779 0.006075961528913001 0.001319672120529
18 Ghana GHA g 77.37 1.9046 0.9141 0.0549 0.358 0.173085410273908 0.051255460807084006 0.01696891720826 0.0033477947699250003
32 USA USA g 77.53 2.0458 1.0036 0.0581 0.3685 0.18166784382418902 0.054667317898632 0.018353123835303003 0.0036853577688740003
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1188 1.166 0.0604 0.2025 0.033958494636703 0.0060732718700589996 0.0008102548329860001 9.504702053700001e-05
31 Uruguay URU d 80.77 2.1806 0.8603 0.0608 0.2143 0.09414679830995401 0.024242881161266 0.009062891449640998 0.002694118130198
14 England ENG d 82.19 2.1702 0.7440000000000001 0.0834 0.3207 0.146184546579886 0.039463177425694 0.015529302882161 0.004906335701565
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6882 1.0828 0.1401 0.3883 0.09746484836397 0.024151945995352003 0.004757862961663 0.0007999340479839999
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.11 2.2107 1.0052 0.2187 0.7867 0.39688700737914706 0.127206437141908 0.044135071741319004 0.010042402356661997
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.31 2.0712 0.8939 0.258 0.8045 0.276899895539729 0.11564777611766802 0.037575821228969006 0.008971614785076
29 Russia RUS h 78.95 1.6554 0.6267 0.2971 0.6311 0.22749489611123 0.074802874116765 0.021834205170477 0.005082348744604
7 Chile CHI b 86.77 2.7182 0.7020000000000001 0.3067 0.7784 0.32280704100429 0.20435595304354 0.104180378433815 0.040918291858245005
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.4 1.5919999999999999 0.6859 0.4098 0.7192 0.285826283528858 0.076810516363015 0.023864652452189997 0.004951435569137
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.0362 0.8086 0.446 0.7458 0.337145321398305 0.106016997739415 0.037798354737165 0.009157158992596
4 Belgium BEL h 82.1 2.1462 0.7351 0.5024 0.7781 0.3614648922748979 0.13780178178126098 0.053452233666439 0.014542709591006
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8015 0.7438 0.6649 0.9546 0.536449662594409 0.35057365720384903 0.180433521596432 0.06626948353811599
16 France FRA e 87.49 2.6233 0.5744 0.7085 0.928 0.578281333123 0.31163601155924603 0.120472402092563 0.055770521066310995
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3961 0.4209 0.7616 0.9624 0.638672887845207 0.217910695564631 0.11100550854238199 0.04997640299600299
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1985 0.7763 0.8735 0.9789 0.7641115780204741 0.48930461307335993 0.20388676589229301 0.114718265121014
2 Argentina ARG f 90.51 2.9010000000000002 0.4164 0.9005 0.9789 0.7140461469028591 0.526942103896658 0.347532236725768 0.15911700984825
6 Brazil BRA a 91.61 3.3851 0.5567 0.9646 0.9987 0.7915541334019219 0.663660986433713 0.522623480159611 0.41225841026610904

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-185551" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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