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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-235413.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi ▼ spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0239 0.155 0.022336338719737003 0.004654214979158001 0.000613133904104 8.6343011673e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0065 0.0686 0.011949756253343002 0.003382018613875 0.0007904520082769999 0.00010068841530700001
3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0208 0.2014 0.05431394282577 0.01200715369636 0.0020489380794699997 0.00039036761071399996
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.127 0.4128 0.09268335482616101 0.024218199173927 0.004978579999239001 0.00090668363387
23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0112 0.1048 0.040952036237262006 0.010326381476911999 0.002674475576421 0.00041329140935300005
19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0102 0.1527 0.06194572231661401 0.017067223333607 0.004770153063585 0.000818943836841
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0397 0.2697 0.08843060008491802 0.024372479179679003 0.005245237858602001 0.0012118902039049998
12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0334 0.3262 0.08886284789178399 0.037567044542918 0.011526673607982001 0.002188157734206
18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0055 0.1056 0.04796208724164 0.013845163437328 0.004656233057717 0.0009215932981779999
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.3982 0.708 0.28344057012303403 0.07768932472107598 0.024638455618436 0.005531982481794001
29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.2059 0.5643 0.175947330533807 0.059847394263040005 0.016871304049961 0.004179814382260999
32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1079 0.68 0.33914224248367103 0.112425488906783 0.039235253037051006 0.00896454372874
25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0571 0.6812 0.203770790545673 0.091696276821205 0.030483341042914 0.006420942877699999
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0082 0.2307 0.11502099158205399 0.037465219450431 0.014290369065586 0.003232095604805
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2235 0.7852 0.39589574080976003 0.12727516248779 0.04516385991466099 0.011130387417183998
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2754 0.8093 0.29295988010622 0.116869231559563 0.039166417000032996 0.010070607870326998
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0363 0.2014 0.066820548556228 0.029250587412828 0.010916448044629998 0.0027323749018189998
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4579 0.753 0.3421215676748531 0.10978040252827401 0.039801031752257 0.010394583483930001
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0367 0.5475 0.231166915357837 0.080425245239378 0.022033327162712998 0.007431728908386999
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0578 0.2116 0.092592750483268 0.025915997261317 0.009715500922655001 0.00305182799612
4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6432 0.8679 0.40600297817275105 0.155733423737741 0.063068000233443 0.017587181652971
14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0861 0.3274 0.149878696057978 0.04351122416885 0.017041881611478002 0.005663593372720999
15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3673 1.0 0.428325492916169 0.268091261907369 0.137291342308182 0.057664009833832
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6327 1.0 0.529571216902452 0.343486718003091 0.17955082872797198 0.07156077286634599
16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6818 0.9207 0.5574073466966321 0.27633310235099395 0.11374863076714199 0.051761757296976
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7551 0.9573 0.6331729162972021 0.23754105390501398 0.118410847324031 0.05497270190735701
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9028 0.9814 0.696951010119079 0.495542650114562 0.31395723633674105 0.14617332952507
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8784 0.9837 0.800904676440121 0.55362842788433 0.27632908865059 0.16952590207706697
6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.9095 0.9926 0.74946965174393 0.610051928842564 0.450982959274125 0.344911902660546

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-235413" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 30.394ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub