2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140619-235903.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by cup

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup ▼ win
3 Australia AUS b 70.15 1.7855 1.3089 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4901 1.1177 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.478 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Algeria ALG h 64.3 1.1801 1.1672 0.0217 0.1586 0.023177660771137996 0.004881756114467 0.0006069481159119999 8.875427778899998e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.18 1.5087 1.2107 0.0056 0.0684 0.01151521267765 0.003343368372675 0.0007966678362810001 0.00010228472570200001
23 Japan JPN c 73.09 2.068 1.3316 0.0 0.0421 0.016423311204373 0.004340302985856 0.001127319896262 0.00017241031205799998
14 England ENG d 82.23 2.1691 0.7432 0.0 0.0348 0.01332331455851 0.002958141570253 0.0011578617612839999 0.000454207509236
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1909 0.7937 0.0207 0.1927 0.051695230833647 0.012098771190776 0.001996002471082 0.00038579571930500003
18 Ghana GHA g 76.29 1.8443 0.9469 0.0082 0.1108 0.049449202022399 0.014227097031238999 0.004822185723493 0.000957936420188
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.548 0.8220000000000001 0.0339 0.2778 0.08931093302788601 0.025334918781069 0.005213991536077 0.0012304503141650001
24 South Korea KOR h 72.49 1.6878 1.0807 0.128 0.4123 0.09766990743315801 0.025848187357784002 0.005218932909619001 0.000964346401263
19 Greece GRE c 74.26 1.2973 0.6702 0.0 0.2276 0.09353377560451 0.026553658843662998 0.007371875257481999 0.0012615391807720001
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.95 1.9863 0.7908 0.0356 0.2065 0.06792184813926401 0.03027262336179 0.011380925539578998 0.002889963674165
28 Portugal POR g 79.1 2.0823 0.9194 0.0109 0.235 0.11743283261903999 0.038654584370085 0.015146261311123002 0.003517857427765
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6132 0.6413 0.1926 0.553 0.177162186203962 0.06077257832085299 0.016790373805651 0.0042489211114770005
31 Uruguay URU d 80.9 2.1952 0.8632 0.1496 0.4462 0.192148687400466 0.056464910081107995 0.021812816010003 0.00665547387846
12 Croatia CRO a 79.64 2.0406 0.8511 0.0401 0.386 0.12564233760307 0.06291216014616001 0.022710942013082002 0.0052541435402520004
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.62 2.3309 0.9766 0.0404 0.5473 0.231705012379867 0.085791347796427 0.022963069606348998 0.007799830205725999
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5925 0.6815 0.3893 0.7823 0.30390935233752003 0.081107526709973 0.025865553440672998 0.005917583252923001
25 Mexico MEX a 78.41 1.4717 0.5341 0.0452 0.6193 0.183165853013789 0.08546311077451499 0.028250546272506002 0.005917536311278001
32 USA USA g 78.46 2.1014 0.9798 0.1181 0.6763 0.336366610499802 0.11196220150892999 0.039096573950261004 0.009049359448649999
22 Italy ITA d 80.15 2.0347 0.8101 0.4611 0.7367 0.339891755775346 0.11151788291661299 0.040915257099544 0.010528059991765
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.54 2.0858 0.8897 0.276 0.8105 0.29447031006324603 0.12154952461467199 0.041126799192739 0.010757743079142
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.13 2.2127 1.0084 0.0127 0.7303 0.370904646820847 0.13529968804344 0.04883696233575599 0.011373467771834
4 Belgium BEL h 81.88 2.1496 0.7576 0.6577 0.8761 0.417748609766226 0.160815052881811 0.06616526452140299 0.018671922696224
10 Colombia COL c 87.7 2.3934 0.4145 0.9873 1.0 0.669865156298407 0.21890132739563503 0.11093838777922099 0.05614267843224
16 France FRA e 86.9 2.5366 0.5805 0.6828 0.9146 0.555323164350654 0.28371395537537797 0.11417631770646303 0.052400358969267
7 Chile CHI b 87.82 2.7509 0.6228 0.4017 1.0 0.4496101282945129 0.29491982623616997 0.160377043220416 0.071075448751948
26 Netherlands NED b 86.15 2.7997 0.8136 0.5983 1.0 0.490313958131399 0.315867493232421 0.16117504532329402 0.061929657171098
17 Germany GER g 89.42 3.2403 0.7437 0.8628 0.9779 0.780992990684355 0.523310910820083 0.246621304159999 0.14605385643971303
2 Argentina ARG f 89.89 2.8248 0.4457 0.905 0.9822 0.6980582885277701 0.49742312210191897 0.31869876876317305 0.148921267223212
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1909 0.516 0.9147 0.9947 0.751267722957209 0.6036939710642522 0.45864000244126 0.355277145762385

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140619-235903" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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