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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140620-235753.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by group

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group ▼ spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1914 0.5169 0.92 0.9954 0.7527066205670351 0.6055883412115179 0.4567749584880821 0.35438816002890705
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4899 1.1181 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 79.63 2.0389 0.8511 0.0401 0.3956 0.129102758690642 0.06572378854064599 0.023988080599226 0.005528494441971
25 Mexico MEX a 78.38 1.4687 0.5347 0.0399 0.609 0.180654522823442 0.086135301822886 0.028714848392849997 0.005987791925261998
3 Australia AUS b 70.13 1.7862 1.3112 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7346 0.6173 0.3974 1.0 0.44566261071672497 0.293890603221623 0.159126969016228 0.070203351101303
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.4782 0.653 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 Netherlands NED b 86.13 2.7973 0.8149 0.6026 1.0 0.4918734872021379 0.32018487646384003 0.163751799148315 0.06265510240287
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2615 1.0159 0.0129 0.7494 0.40680168280729495 0.152064699131503 0.056571300933451 0.013439692710297999
10 Colombia COL c 87.5 2.4207 0.4508 0.9871 1.0 0.653977246340077 0.21118812568098602 0.104492013744209 0.052890321846410994
19 Greece GRE c 74.23 1.183 0.5846 0.0 0.2093 0.09109516634182599 0.026092445743608 0.0073595538679380006 0.0012491466607179999
23 Japan JPN c 73.26 1.9584 1.2372 0.0 0.0413 0.017369024148292 0.0046486814106560005 0.00122902405135 0.000189541010474
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5984 0.6861 0.8753 1.0 0.451403600167022 0.144139825903059 0.04725837597717 0.009882227261625
14 England ENG d 81.52 2.1296 0.7722 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 80.06 2.0297 0.813 0.0628 0.6024 0.21771050074826698 0.048184156766244005 0.016663007547241 0.005335888838292
31 Uruguay URU d 81.42 2.231 0.8484 0.0619 0.3976 0.161642779447292 0.042159154103415 0.016205081689228 0.005568191936181999
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9872 0.7934 0.0052 0.3843 0.11280769887217401 0.054542986989533 0.022649989569531005 0.005424000820114
16 France FRA e 86.89 2.5361 0.5808 0.994 0.9994 0.665198423966258 0.323177620218612 0.11555596703725599 0.057683207086759
20 Honduras HON e 68.14 1.506 1.2117 0.0 0.0156 0.002432526982666 0.000734629689273 0.00018779119297999999 2.3064435524e-05
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.55 2.0841 0.8886 0.0008 0.6007 0.170703596953412 0.082035219873791 0.033799447450837 0.007901844044491001
2 Argentina ARG f 89.91 2.8255 0.4452 0.9052 0.984 0.7198881934786271 0.5138148107371779 0.33147680419914 0.154742830446819
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.331 0.9799 0.0372 0.5445 0.20479060121171802 0.076074350787074 0.020498952092898 0.006959851041733001
21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1912 0.7941 0.0214 0.2008 0.04655035897130901 0.011082094753768998 0.001889200670292 0.00035941093832999997
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.87 1.5464 0.8209 0.0362 0.2707 0.077628599563765 0.022474913266808 0.004848223145595 0.001115721275687
17 Germany GER g 89.41 3.2374 0.7435 0.8599 0.9785 0.782265074850978 0.5030629364294861 0.237878978773379 0.14098528889635698
18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8448 0.9487 0.0064 0.1106 0.049429436958193 0.014443910386641 0.004991540030425999 0.000983750552676
28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.0819 0.9218 0.0101 0.2315 0.11565253534306699 0.038730146787384005 0.015375480783476001 0.003550241445562
32 USA USA g 78.44 2.1002 0.9802 0.1236 0.6794 0.337998984316163 0.11214549221655401 0.039753018321702006 0.009143384779355
1 Algeria ALG h 64.25 1.1759 1.1674 0.0208 0.1612 0.023822225564571 0.004642046469399999 0.000592933348165 8.5072360298e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1461 0.7596 0.6544 0.8665 0.414125292809248 0.15917930379864403 0.066443325907681 0.018571782757338
24 South Korea KOR h 72.53 1.6905 1.0807 0.1233 0.4119 0.096494811533901 0.024301739732358996 0.0050181462543599994 0.000926273030152
29 Russia RUS h 78.34 1.6128 0.6409 0.2015 0.5604 0.18021163862394501 0.05955779786349201 0.016905187766968997 0.004226365924494001

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140620-235753" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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