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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140620-235753.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi ▼ spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.25 1.1759 1.1674 0.0208 0.1612 0.023822225564571 0.004642046469399999 0.000592933348165 8.5072360298e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.14 1.506 1.2117 0.0 0.0156 0.002432526982666 0.000734629689273 0.00018779119297999999 2.3064435524e-05
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4899 1.1181 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Australia AUS b 70.13 1.7862 1.3112 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1912 0.7941 0.0214 0.2008 0.04655035897130901 0.011082094753768998 0.001889200670292 0.00035941093832999997
24 South Korea KOR h 72.53 1.6905 1.0807 0.1233 0.4119 0.096494811533901 0.024301739732358996 0.0050181462543599994 0.000926273030152
23 Japan JPN c 73.26 1.9584 1.2372 0.0 0.0413 0.017369024148292 0.0046486814106560005 0.00122902405135 0.000189541010474
19 Greece GRE c 74.23 1.183 0.5846 0.0 0.2093 0.09109516634182599 0.026092445743608 0.0073595538679380006 0.0012491466607179999
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.87 1.5464 0.8209 0.0362 0.2707 0.077628599563765 0.022474913266808 0.004848223145595 0.001115721275687
18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8448 0.9487 0.0064 0.1106 0.049429436958193 0.014443910386641 0.004991540030425999 0.000983750552676
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5984 0.6861 0.8753 1.0 0.451403600167022 0.144139825903059 0.04725837597717 0.009882227261625
29 Russia RUS h 78.34 1.6128 0.6409 0.2015 0.5604 0.18021163862394501 0.05955779786349201 0.016905187766968997 0.004226365924494001
25 Mexico MEX a 78.38 1.4687 0.5347 0.0399 0.609 0.180654522823442 0.086135301822886 0.028714848392849997 0.005987791925261998
32 USA USA g 78.44 2.1002 0.9802 0.1236 0.6794 0.337998984316163 0.11214549221655401 0.039753018321702006 0.009143384779355
28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.0819 0.9218 0.0101 0.2315 0.11565253534306699 0.038730146787384005 0.015375480783476001 0.003550241445562
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2615 1.0159 0.0129 0.7494 0.40680168280729495 0.152064699131503 0.056571300933451 0.013439692710297999
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.55 2.0841 0.8886 0.0008 0.6007 0.170703596953412 0.082035219873791 0.033799447450837 0.007901844044491001
12 Croatia CRO a 79.63 2.0389 0.8511 0.0401 0.3956 0.129102758690642 0.06572378854064599 0.023988080599226 0.005528494441971
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9872 0.7934 0.0052 0.3843 0.11280769887217401 0.054542986989533 0.022649989569531005 0.005424000820114
22 Italy ITA d 80.06 2.0297 0.813 0.0628 0.6024 0.21771050074826698 0.048184156766244005 0.016663007547241 0.005335888838292
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.331 0.9799 0.0372 0.5445 0.20479060121171802 0.076074350787074 0.020498952092898 0.006959851041733001
31 Uruguay URU d 81.42 2.231 0.8484 0.0619 0.3976 0.161642779447292 0.042159154103415 0.016205081689228 0.005568191936181999
14 England ENG d 81.52 2.1296 0.7722 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1461 0.7596 0.6544 0.8665 0.414125292809248 0.15917930379864403 0.066443325907681 0.018571782757338
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.4782 0.653 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 Netherlands NED b 86.13 2.7973 0.8149 0.6026 1.0 0.4918734872021379 0.32018487646384003 0.163751799148315 0.06265510240287
16 France FRA e 86.89 2.5361 0.5808 0.994 0.9994 0.665198423966258 0.323177620218612 0.11555596703725599 0.057683207086759
10 Colombia COL c 87.5 2.4207 0.4508 0.9871 1.0 0.653977246340077 0.21118812568098602 0.104492013744209 0.052890321846410994
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7346 0.6173 0.3974 1.0 0.44566261071672497 0.293890603221623 0.159126969016228 0.070203351101303
17 Germany GER g 89.41 3.2374 0.7435 0.8599 0.9785 0.782265074850978 0.5030629364294861 0.237878978773379 0.14098528889635698
2 Argentina ARG f 89.91 2.8255 0.4452 0.9052 0.984 0.7198881934786271 0.5138148107371779 0.33147680419914 0.154742830446819
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1914 0.5169 0.92 0.9954 0.7527066205670351 0.6055883412115179 0.4567749584880821 0.35438816002890705

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140620-235753" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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