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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140621-235521.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi ▼ spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.22 1.1757 1.1682 0.024 0.1601 0.026137633503823997 0.004762820123842999 0.000625121492642 8.585510843899999e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.33 1.5117 1.2037 0.0 0.0211 0.003171893896433 0.000964160720018 0.00025165153249000004 3.0655072943000006e-05
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.4 1.4905 1.12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Australia AUS b 70.33 1.7888 1.2996 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 70.81 1.1916 0.7949 0.0 0.1239 0.023651341716592004 0.005450542032817 0.000754011131153 0.000163413977494
24 South Korea KOR h 72.52 1.6902 1.0808 0.1217 0.4062 0.098637274487032 0.024123943093597 0.0049304632576850005 0.0008957957361719999
23 Japan JPN c 73.35 1.9701 1.2392 0.0 0.0433 0.017803535566033 0.004837993741932 0.0012740037910530001 0.000194539135702
19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.1796 0.5825 0.0 0.2165 0.09147638122301 0.025996729885075 0.007168292624101 0.0012046518617049998
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.5469 0.8212 0.0967 0.8761 0.22653364999890196 0.068174292383725 0.014315401883906 0.003286271792816
18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8449 0.9481 0.0 0.155 0.068740023424567 0.019834424236486 0.0070731208739240005 0.00133367611425
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.27 2.1691 1.0401 0.0003 0.6052 0.16504681553798 0.07368029582601401 0.029040741265318998 0.0063020488638119996
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6129 0.6409 0.2057 0.5637 0.186976730914508 0.059974556812256 0.016894263942572 0.004170706864219001
25 Mexico MEX a 78.45 1.4757 0.534 0.0457 0.6114 0.18145713687351897 0.08563425916043801 0.028170604854143997 0.00585708096803
32 USA USA g 78.54 2.1097 0.9792 0.1922 0.6331 0.322432990461005 0.10771461957064901 0.035993361452665004 0.008489275201589
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.55 1.5911 0.6107 0.8757 1.0 0.46677754554421297 0.15474900326743898 0.05180199473336 0.011343037929811998
28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.082 0.9213 0.0316 0.2315 0.118024266705303 0.0400254972797 0.015048337040912 0.003520368484479
22 Italy ITA d 79.26 1.9422 0.8095 0.0603 0.5852 0.202886647840559 0.043055120542814 0.014098839245529 0.0042499351426029995
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2617 1.0151 0.0142 0.7402 0.393062389118911 0.146258348864573 0.053462491842893 0.012634453268506
12 Croatia CRO a 79.53 2.0276 0.8497 0.0369 0.3948 0.127729329129002 0.064294042816293 0.022872672161676003 0.005214875198755
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.0 1.989 0.789 0.0039 0.3739 0.110326190609519 0.051914696729333 0.021413681134464 0.005111987647438
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.3324 0.9795 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.43 2.1314 0.7789 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2386 0.8471 0.064 0.4148 0.16931231182829 0.044280154105602994 0.016884537395438 0.005764516544003
4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1451 0.7583 0.6486 0.87 0.40199038112440005 0.15387561341366598 0.06352451703277201 0.017696037682148
15 Spain ESP b 85.73 2.4815 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 Netherlands NED b 86.18 2.7976 0.8089 0.6005 1.0 0.492634830406801 0.319170696342193 0.16117378113234498 0.061659199867296
10 Colombia COL c 87.51 2.4223 0.4507 0.9858 1.0 0.6586811888789339 0.213942882817648 0.1045912493672 0.052364321225439006
7 Chile CHI b 87.79 2.7379 0.6167 0.3995 1.0 0.447972591916498 0.29437714439875295 0.15787199921561904 0.069349428052618
16 France FRA e 87.82 2.7485 0.62 0.9958 0.9998 0.7355343124624691 0.395742684425909 0.15337539229046399 0.080646409895771
17 Germany GER g 89.38 3.237 0.745 0.7762 0.9804 0.7770606993794341 0.478690576089819 0.23479513758478998 0.13537747841636
2 Argentina ARG f 89.92 2.8288 0.4448 0.9033 1.0 0.7357357957780211 0.5150712772621779 0.330783156304989 0.154600102648226
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1874 0.5156 0.9174 0.9938 0.750206111674258 0.603403624057202 0.451811175415877 0.34845387729937705

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140621-235521" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 121.639ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub