2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140622-175429.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by quarter

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter ▼ semi cup win
3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0193 0.0032337905346070004 0.0009122675564069999 0.000234203646487 2.9705326007e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0413 0.017034255537747 0.004636764792729 0.00123192394709 0.000192451623502
21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1261 0.024499579557585 0.006147919083531001 0.000867692161579 0.000196953490057
1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0096 0.1874 0.029816781562364 0.005523792407660999 0.0006139594735100001 9.890843779700001e-05
18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.9179999999999999 0.0 0.1575 0.068997145128504 0.021885111057706002 0.008185002711622 0.0016894565030460002
19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2202 0.09293684959097401 0.026276831778392 0.007419025772991 0.0012714210380110002
29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.0 0.3451 0.101019879314876 0.033510836966514995 0.006867084602145001 0.002158898432137
28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.9259999999999999 0.0349 0.2237 0.108885473123994 0.038044749573322 0.014077579091496 0.003367954216536
24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.0873 0.4675 0.11086854590065401 0.02780211987419 0.005117250505645 0.0010330452175780001
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.7909999999999999 0.0029 0.3709 0.114271526989592 0.05261742381462099 0.021822317785418002 0.005280194423531
12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.0358 0.3949 0.127463373732554 0.064233786322742 0.02341977036237 0.005416053367198
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.0636 0.4165 0.17019828209959698 0.04466806403418 0.017409383634968002 0.006076330213537999
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0 0.61 0.17259783114736904 0.075160540751651 0.029632912102997 0.006550977071316999
25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0451 0.6112 0.181456870884138 0.085663466901592 0.028855890442709996 0.006103545854890999
22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0562 0.5835 0.20147835768874803 0.042050482275558 0.014223740131153 0.004422606060601
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1091 0.8739 0.240699671039645 0.079596336239923 0.017720243986996002 0.0043932667204709995
32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.2093 0.6406 0.32232645425094003 0.111323631003748 0.036685595740415 0.00905037827022
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.013 0.7385 0.39267921509000003 0.146857973898669 0.055023280245010006 0.013215606879824
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4064 1.0 0.4490705879388449 0.295166640736862 0.16135575716686903 0.07169335787992401
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.8802 1.0 0.46763678288072896 0.15546775951028302 0.053334794020702 0.01186160838292
4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.9031 1.0 0.487876124013868 0.19088073022808802 0.083305493309295 0.022785363580161
26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5936 1.0 0.49155702755580893 0.31868371773295 0.16464354068113699 0.06389107423984
10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.987 1.0 0.658036257112319 0.21280203249331797 0.106721056013263 0.054383891934947
16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9971 0.9998 0.722173749292681 0.40462979740154 0.156575349820236 0.08381355360387799
2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8909 1.0 0.722523851438545 0.4923353026368111 0.309462554775411 0.142795902120626
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1860000000000004 0.5158 0.9191 0.9939 0.7504521398885771 0.6034924795226501 0.45806388219777294 0.3567467930439989
17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.7558 0.9782 0.770209596704822 0.459629441404286 0.217130715670713 0.12148070206744198

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-175429" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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