2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140623-175427.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by quarter

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter ▼ semi cup win
3 Australia AUS b 70.26 1.7863 1.3032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.34 2.1914 0.9794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.34 1.4876 1.1228 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.42 2.1295 0.7809 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4815 0.6539 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.44 1.6461 1.5618 0.0 0.0075 0.000986414349757 0.00017068208633099998 1.5840076398e-05 2.4634214419999996e-06
20 Honduras HON e 68.27 1.5098 1.2066 0.0 0.0223 0.003712516808648 0.001062423058225 0.000275760284561 3.4495264132e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.34 1.972 1.2427 0.0 0.0432 0.01786554885068 0.004952283833497 0.001307648616763 0.000204132261473
28 Portugal POR g 78.88 2.0901 0.9426 0.0 0.0436 0.018802765247643002 0.0063237213487509995 0.0026190041685570003 0.000595375397513
21 Iran IRN f 70.87 1.1287 0.742 0.0 0.1211 0.023315098765523998 0.005396422208910999 0.000746415819703 0.00017279961640599998
19 Greece GRE c 72.85 1.1093 0.6108 0.0 0.2004 0.081669163008617 0.022593790438476 0.006067427387964001 0.000974930384837
18 Ghana GHA g 78.98 1.9887 0.8644 0.0 0.2044 0.08677433453530199 0.02963209701022 0.012123590112918001 0.0027353422557079995
29 Russia RUS h 76.91 1.4624 0.6276 0.0 0.3578 0.08983094416939 0.028018270293539 0.005323707408388 0.001599452077532
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9854 0.7933 0.0032 0.3746 0.11602493907316498 0.051997109357612 0.021983012408494 0.005304300596944001
12 Croatia CRO a 79.81 2.0425 0.8417 0.0386 0.3919 0.13272175112416199 0.06751395283044201 0.024967373201922997 0.005878263065363001
1 Algeria ALG h 74.28 2.0432 1.2319 0.0366 0.6347 0.150737800100143 0.043463583640516 0.008107590859251 0.002132732777771
31 Uruguay URU d 81.47 2.2401 0.8513 0.057 0.4043 0.164678978868231 0.04267769502692 0.016466148888132 0.005845243875117
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.16 2.1622 1.0454 0.0007 0.6033 0.17049174624370098 0.07245300808455 0.028979719694735003 0.006365719272579
25 Mexico MEX a 78.39 1.4714 0.5366 0.0414 0.6132 0.187840654630899 0.08863051583148598 0.029839016333185 0.00628993113446
22 Italy ITA d 79.21 1.9401 0.8138 0.0573 0.5957 0.206544395775119 0.043328890877385 0.014406954327206999 0.004510999602874001
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.09 1.5318 0.732 0.1125 0.8789 0.243779661228361 0.076814427991768 0.017456832829478002 0.0043823743976800006
7 Chile CHI b 87.76 2.7339 0.6197 0.0 1.0 0.2942470657647 0.17136733591109302 0.089005829648733 0.047661673657800004
32 USA USA g 78.74 2.1609 1.0022 0.1533 0.7549 0.343269287019703 0.119021587827036 0.04295350695757 0.010307083051496
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.68 2.2768 1.0128 0.0143 0.7564 0.40585721351274895 0.15708534790243803 0.059493312210518 0.014441759563277
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.47 1.5821 0.6114 0.8857 1.0 0.46654925395525704 0.158879933914279 0.054384836455098 0.012036605900106002
4 Belgium BEL h 83.29 2.1563 0.6524 0.9634 1.0 0.5343750815599171 0.223168547320466 0.10727694582902002 0.031466144040565
26 Netherlands NED b 86.2 2.7928 0.8062 1.0 1.0 0.6451403642838779 0.43569394426061103 0.228161130059314 0.083699605247351
10 Colombia COL c 87.41 2.4118 0.4555 0.9857 1.0 0.6568354460292191 0.21138684300474497 0.104182167573806 0.053492265924939
16 France FRA e 87.8 2.7457 0.6228 0.9961 0.9998 0.720223308263229 0.390636569758475 0.151372729703417 0.082079358744453
2 Argentina ARG f 89.64 2.7388 0.425 0.8875 1.0 0.7224527296175981 0.48677291051594207 0.30943543065918294 0.142647445542212
6 Brazil BRA a 91.1 3.1656 0.5023 0.92 0.9949 0.7400501641962841 0.5958894661686569 0.449340446589498 0.35193418803627097
17 Germany GER g 88.74 3.1773 0.7828 0.8467 0.9971 0.775223373018302 0.46506863949774196 0.213707621896177 0.123205314889703

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140623-175427" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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