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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140623-175427.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by semi

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi ▼ cup win
3 Australia AUS b 70.26 1.7863 1.3032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.34 2.1914 0.9794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.34 1.4876 1.1228 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.42 2.1295 0.7809 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4815 0.6539 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.44 1.6461 1.5618 0.0 0.0075 0.000986414349757 0.00017068208633099998 1.5840076398e-05 2.4634214419999996e-06
20 Honduras HON e 68.27 1.5098 1.2066 0.0 0.0223 0.003712516808648 0.001062423058225 0.000275760284561 3.4495264132e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.34 1.972 1.2427 0.0 0.0432 0.01786554885068 0.004952283833497 0.001307648616763 0.000204132261473
21 Iran IRN f 70.87 1.1287 0.742 0.0 0.1211 0.023315098765523998 0.005396422208910999 0.000746415819703 0.00017279961640599998
28 Portugal POR g 78.88 2.0901 0.9426 0.0 0.0436 0.018802765247643002 0.0063237213487509995 0.0026190041685570003 0.000595375397513
19 Greece GRE c 72.85 1.1093 0.6108 0.0 0.2004 0.081669163008617 0.022593790438476 0.006067427387964001 0.000974930384837
29 Russia RUS h 76.91 1.4624 0.6276 0.0 0.3578 0.08983094416939 0.028018270293539 0.005323707408388 0.001599452077532
18 Ghana GHA g 78.98 1.9887 0.8644 0.0 0.2044 0.08677433453530199 0.02963209701022 0.012123590112918001 0.0027353422557079995
31 Uruguay URU d 81.47 2.2401 0.8513 0.057 0.4043 0.164678978868231 0.04267769502692 0.016466148888132 0.005845243875117
22 Italy ITA d 79.21 1.9401 0.8138 0.0573 0.5957 0.206544395775119 0.043328890877385 0.014406954327206999 0.004510999602874001
1 Algeria ALG h 74.28 2.0432 1.2319 0.0366 0.6347 0.150737800100143 0.043463583640516 0.008107590859251 0.002132732777771
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9854 0.7933 0.0032 0.3746 0.11602493907316498 0.051997109357612 0.021983012408494 0.005304300596944001
12 Croatia CRO a 79.81 2.0425 0.8417 0.0386 0.3919 0.13272175112416199 0.06751395283044201 0.024967373201922997 0.005878263065363001
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.16 2.1622 1.0454 0.0007 0.6033 0.17049174624370098 0.07245300808455 0.028979719694735003 0.006365719272579
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.09 1.5318 0.732 0.1125 0.8789 0.243779661228361 0.076814427991768 0.017456832829478002 0.0043823743976800006
25 Mexico MEX a 78.39 1.4714 0.5366 0.0414 0.6132 0.187840654630899 0.08863051583148598 0.029839016333185 0.00628993113446
32 USA USA g 78.74 2.1609 1.0022 0.1533 0.7549 0.343269287019703 0.119021587827036 0.04295350695757 0.010307083051496
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.68 2.2768 1.0128 0.0143 0.7564 0.40585721351274895 0.15708534790243803 0.059493312210518 0.014441759563277
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.47 1.5821 0.6114 0.8857 1.0 0.46654925395525704 0.158879933914279 0.054384836455098 0.012036605900106002
7 Chile CHI b 87.76 2.7339 0.6197 0.0 1.0 0.2942470657647 0.17136733591109302 0.089005829648733 0.047661673657800004
10 Colombia COL c 87.41 2.4118 0.4555 0.9857 1.0 0.6568354460292191 0.21138684300474497 0.104182167573806 0.053492265924939
4 Belgium BEL h 83.29 2.1563 0.6524 0.9634 1.0 0.5343750815599171 0.223168547320466 0.10727694582902002 0.031466144040565
16 France FRA e 87.8 2.7457 0.6228 0.9961 0.9998 0.720223308263229 0.390636569758475 0.151372729703417 0.082079358744453
26 Netherlands NED b 86.2 2.7928 0.8062 1.0 1.0 0.6451403642838779 0.43569394426061103 0.228161130059314 0.083699605247351
17 Germany GER g 88.74 3.1773 0.7828 0.8467 0.9971 0.775223373018302 0.46506863949774196 0.213707621896177 0.123205314889703
2 Argentina ARG f 89.64 2.7388 0.425 0.8875 1.0 0.7224527296175981 0.48677291051594207 0.30943543065918294 0.142647445542212
6 Brazil BRA a 91.1 3.1656 0.5023 0.92 0.9949 0.7400501641962841 0.5958894661686569 0.449340446589498 0.35193418803627097

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140623-175427" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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