2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140623-175427.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
19 Greece GRE c 72.85 1.1093 0.6108 0.0 0.2004 0.081669163008617 0.022593790438476 0.006067427387964001 0.000974930384837
21 Iran IRN f 70.87 1.1287 0.742 0.0 0.1211 0.023315098765523998 0.005396422208910999 0.000746415819703 0.00017279961640599998
29 Russia RUS h 76.91 1.4624 0.6276 0.0 0.3578 0.08983094416939 0.028018270293539 0.005323707408388 0.001599452077532
25 Mexico MEX a 78.39 1.4714 0.5366 0.0414 0.6132 0.187840654630899 0.08863051583148598 0.029839016333185 0.00628993113446
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.34 1.4876 1.1228 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 68.27 1.5098 1.2066 0.0 0.0223 0.003712516808648 0.001062423058225 0.000275760284561 3.4495264132e-05
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.09 1.5318 0.732 0.1125 0.8789 0.243779661228361 0.076814427991768 0.017456832829478002 0.0043823743976800006
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.47 1.5821 0.6114 0.8857 1.0 0.46654925395525704 0.158879933914279 0.054384836455098 0.012036605900106002
24 South Korea KOR h 64.44 1.6461 1.5618 0.0 0.0075 0.000986414349757 0.00017068208633099998 1.5840076398e-05 2.4634214419999996e-06
3 Australia AUS b 70.26 1.7863 1.3032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 79.21 1.9401 0.8138 0.0573 0.5957 0.206544395775119 0.043328890877385 0.014406954327206999 0.004510999602874001
23 Japan JPN c 73.34 1.972 1.2427 0.0 0.0432 0.01786554885068 0.004952283833497 0.001307648616763 0.000204132261473
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9854 0.7933 0.0032 0.3746 0.11602493907316498 0.051997109357612 0.021983012408494 0.005304300596944001
18 Ghana GHA g 78.98 1.9887 0.8644 0.0 0.2044 0.08677433453530199 0.02963209701022 0.012123590112918001 0.0027353422557079995
12 Croatia CRO a 79.81 2.0425 0.8417 0.0386 0.3919 0.13272175112416199 0.06751395283044201 0.024967373201922997 0.005878263065363001
1 Algeria ALG h 74.28 2.0432 1.2319 0.0366 0.6347 0.150737800100143 0.043463583640516 0.008107590859251 0.002132732777771
28 Portugal POR g 78.88 2.0901 0.9426 0.0 0.0436 0.018802765247643002 0.0063237213487509995 0.0026190041685570003 0.000595375397513
14 England ENG d 81.42 2.1295 0.7809 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 83.29 2.1563 0.6524 0.9634 1.0 0.5343750815599171 0.223168547320466 0.10727694582902002 0.031466144040565
32 USA USA g 78.74 2.1609 1.0022 0.1533 0.7549 0.343269287019703 0.119021587827036 0.04295350695757 0.010307083051496
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.16 2.1622 1.0454 0.0007 0.6033 0.17049174624370098 0.07245300808455 0.028979719694735003 0.006365719272579
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.34 2.1914 0.9794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 81.47 2.2401 0.8513 0.057 0.4043 0.164678978868231 0.04267769502692 0.016466148888132 0.005845243875117
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.68 2.2768 1.0128 0.0143 0.7564 0.40585721351274895 0.15708534790243803 0.059493312210518 0.014441759563277
10 Colombia COL c 87.41 2.4118 0.4555 0.9857 1.0 0.6568354460292191 0.21138684300474497 0.104182167573806 0.053492265924939
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4815 0.6539 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 87.76 2.7339 0.6197 0.0 1.0 0.2942470657647 0.17136733591109302 0.089005829648733 0.047661673657800004
2 Argentina ARG f 89.64 2.7388 0.425 0.8875 1.0 0.7224527296175981 0.48677291051594207 0.30943543065918294 0.142647445542212
16 France FRA e 87.8 2.7457 0.6228 0.9961 0.9998 0.720223308263229 0.390636569758475 0.151372729703417 0.082079358744453
26 Netherlands NED b 86.2 2.7928 0.8062 1.0 1.0 0.6451403642838779 0.43569394426061103 0.228161130059314 0.083699605247351
6 Brazil BRA a 91.1 3.1656 0.5023 0.92 0.9949 0.7400501641962841 0.5958894661686569 0.449340446589498 0.35193418803627097
17 Germany GER g 88.74 3.1773 0.7828 0.8467 0.9971 0.775223373018302 0.46506863949774196 0.213707621896177 0.123205314889703

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140623-175427" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 22.73ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub