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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140629-225940.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by semi

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi ▼ cup win
3 Australia AUS b 67.38 1.6908 1.4203 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.42 2.2764 0.9622 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 86.37 2.5118 0.6179 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.36 2.249 1.0979999999999999 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.12 1.4612 1.1840000000000002 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 77.86 2.0413 0.9876 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.11 1.7828 0.6434 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.05 2.0535 0.7613 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 86.2 2.4975 0.6242 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 78.32 1.9857 0.9148 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 Greece GRE c 74.59 1.1788 0.5647 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 65.76 1.4288 1.3019 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 69.42 1.1062 0.8143 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 78.4 1.8135 0.7866 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 72.8 2.0277 1.3298 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.79 1.5064 1.4285 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.621 0.5351 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
28 Portugal POR g 79.88 2.1723 0.9317 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 Russia RUS h 76.4 1.4348 0.6451 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 80.86 2.0933 0.8031 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Algeria ALG h 74.96 2.0782 1.2191 0 1 0.17450573305892497 0.049331154021298 0.004967118245624001 0.001168368233128
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.12 1.6969 0.7906 0 1 0.24253547085823 0.061192116585356 0.007065955468055999 0.0018133927226020002
32 USA USA g 78.62 2.0268 0.9228 0 1 0.4115814673215821 0.10667899486164 0.035678568118811003 0.005908958684436999
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.74 2.2656 1.0062 0 1 0.22229393064238298 0.106742391683657 0.038716157219240994 0.0071386992422479995
4 Belgium BEL h 83.04 2.0537 0.607 1 1 0.5884185326784179 0.197178373764613 0.082236536598584 0.01866371468384
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.18 1.479 0.5604 1 1 1.0 0.24952902938266397 0.070241804991627 0.010750394900933002
10 Colombia COL c 89.42 2.6378 0.38799999999999996 1 1 1.0 0.284019261484107 0.15629893869438902 0.087090197445144
16 France FRA e 87.62 2.6444 0.5791 1 1 0.75746452914177 0.377900471238731 0.112755582565703 0.057091509499679005
17 Germany GER g 88.66 3.0580000000000003 0.7217 1 1 0.8254942669410749 0.511576258154615 0.178255678484572 0.100616754770629
2 Argentina ARG f 89.97 2.9269 0.498 1 1 0.7777060693576171 0.589400239690089 0.381476782574728 0.164163630603246
6 Brazil BRA a 90.61 3.0717 0.5063 1 1 1.0 0.715980738515893 0.5406567265416561 0.40984323824520097
26 Netherlands NED b 87.38 2.8059 0.7025 1 1 1.0 0.7504709706173359 0.391650150497009 0.135751140968914

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140629-225940" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 56.782ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub