2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-235413.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by win_group

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group ▼ sixteen quarter semi cup win
3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0055 0.1056 0.04796208724164 0.013845163437328 0.004656233057717 0.0009215932981779999
20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0065 0.0686 0.011949756253343002 0.003382018613875 0.0007904520082769999 0.00010068841530700001
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0082 0.2307 0.11502099158205399 0.037465219450431 0.014290369065586 0.003232095604805
19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0102 0.1527 0.06194572231661401 0.017067223333607 0.004770153063585 0.000818943836841
23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0112 0.1048 0.040952036237262006 0.010326381476911999 0.002674475576421 0.00041329140935300005
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0208 0.2014 0.05431394282577 0.01200715369636 0.0020489380794699997 0.00039036761071399996
1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0239 0.155 0.022336338719737003 0.004654214979158001 0.000613133904104 8.6343011673e-05
12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0334 0.3262 0.08886284789178399 0.037567044542918 0.011526673607982001 0.002188157734206
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0363 0.2014 0.066820548556228 0.029250587412828 0.010916448044629998 0.0027323749018189998
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0367 0.5475 0.231166915357837 0.080425245239378 0.022033327162712998 0.007431728908386999
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0397 0.2697 0.08843060008491802 0.024372479179679003 0.005245237858602001 0.0012118902039049998
25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0571 0.6812 0.203770790545673 0.091696276821205 0.030483341042914 0.006420942877699999
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0578 0.2116 0.092592750483268 0.025915997261317 0.009715500922655001 0.00305182799612
14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0861 0.3274 0.149878696057978 0.04351122416885 0.017041881611478002 0.005663593372720999
32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1079 0.68 0.33914224248367103 0.112425488906783 0.039235253037051006 0.00896454372874
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.127 0.4128 0.09268335482616101 0.024218199173927 0.004978579999239001 0.00090668363387
29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.2059 0.5643 0.175947330533807 0.059847394263040005 0.016871304049961 0.004179814382260999
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2235 0.7852 0.39589574080976003 0.12727516248779 0.04516385991466099 0.011130387417183998
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2754 0.8093 0.29295988010622 0.116869231559563 0.039166417000032996 0.010070607870326998
7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3673 1.0 0.428325492916169 0.268091261907369 0.137291342308182 0.057664009833832
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.3982 0.708 0.28344057012303403 0.07768932472107598 0.024638455618436 0.005531982481794001
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4579 0.753 0.3421215676748531 0.10978040252827401 0.039801031752257 0.010394583483930001
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6327 1.0 0.529571216902452 0.343486718003091 0.17955082872797198 0.07156077286634599
4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6432 0.8679 0.40600297817275105 0.155733423737741 0.063068000233443 0.017587181652971
16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6818 0.9207 0.5574073466966321 0.27633310235099395 0.11374863076714199 0.051761757296976
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7551 0.9573 0.6331729162972021 0.23754105390501398 0.118410847324031 0.05497270190735701
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8784 0.9837 0.800904676440121 0.55362842788433 0.27632908865059 0.16952590207706697
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9028 0.9814 0.696951010119079 0.495542650114562 0.31395723633674105 0.14617332952507
6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.9095 0.9926 0.74946965174393 0.610051928842564 0.450982959274125 0.344911902660546

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-235413" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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