2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140625-091929.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by group

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group ▼ spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
6 Brazil BRA a 91.27 3.2346 0.521 1.0 1.0 0.7788352855777251 0.6131344427431209 0.467506006272548 0.36807059463035596
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.13 1.4479 1.1705 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 77.85 2.0359 0.9836 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
25 Mexico MEX a 80.16 1.6322 0.534 0.0 1.0 0.31217149437875896 0.17264691044528196 0.06340915822293 0.014271191027258
3 Australia AUS b 67.52 1.6824 1.4017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 86.6 2.5703 0.6345 0.0 1.0 0.22116471442239102 0.11445388465744599 0.055470276815465 0.028978421290169996
15 Spain ESP b 86.3 2.5034 0.6205 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 Netherlands NED b 87.4 2.8013 0.6993 1.0 1.0 0.6878285056211341 0.505048451317339 0.278617357214773 0.105807485252636
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.11 2.2383 1.1081 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 88.18 2.5068 0.4405 1.0 1.0 0.6317194704033511 0.19645083433970603 0.10137675230824601 0.056047840774125994
19 Greece GRE c 74.37 1.1835 0.5811 0.0 1.0 0.433269661470122 0.12495398178020699 0.035763883676903 0.005887533700401
23 Japan JPN c 72.56 2.0187 1.3374 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.59 1.5038 0.5506 1.0 1.0 0.5667303385298721 0.19735065645726002 0.06810151698151 0.014168058084376
14 England ENG d 81.19 2.0524 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 78.54 1.8199 0.7809999999999999 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 82.21 2.209 0.7769 0.0 1.0 0.3682805295966621 0.07596083825963901 0.029279305883267 0.012395657529746001
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.11 1.9817 0.7822 0.0031 0.3816 0.119069538808334 0.054106173907510005 0.023355610858311 0.00542457466489
16 France FRA e 87.8 2.7439999999999998 0.6238 0.9966 0.9998 0.719506557420595 0.39173992701170707 0.14125583715473097 0.077989527000286
20 Honduras HON e 68.45 1.5159 1.2065 0.0 0.0223 0.003985506847744001 0.0011375444493 0.000310980059111 3.7145148349e-05
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.11 2.1503 1.0465 0.0003 0.5963 0.167187179594208 0.07132027199738099 0.028949355718242996 0.006021083407581999
2 Argentina ARG f 89.65 2.7396 0.4256 0.8865 1.0 0.722491901536268 0.48897223705565296 0.31263971527347 0.13947364117596303
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.4 2.19 0.9789 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 70.91 1.1286 0.7440000000000001 0.0 0.1228 0.023588330854041 0.005563106639374001 0.0006942247001219999 0.000164824453086
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.16 1.5231 0.7259 0.1135 0.8772 0.24417098493878 0.077537819857588 0.016760307399622 0.0041799514964379995
17 Germany GER g 88.62 3.1686 0.7927 0.8525 0.997 0.773819947328885 0.46128926973933704 0.19919774723514103 0.11474397073485301
18 Ghana GHA g 79.02 1.9875 0.8654 0.0 0.1992 0.085643613613634 0.029273292985237002 0.01216553680286 0.002624087360269
28 Portugal POR g 79.15 2.1062 0.9394 0.0 0.0465 0.020368031774674 0.007105125679891999 0.0030074187810029997 0.0006631332574700001
32 USA USA g 78.85 2.1632 1.0015 0.1475 0.7573 0.34657903792788697 0.12044906798072699 0.043898370504618 0.010153375227495001
1 Algeria ALG h 74.32 2.0416 1.2344 0.0358 0.6224 0.148461572317145 0.042984803930455 0.007357112949829 0.001957883594863
4 Belgium BEL h 83.12 2.134 0.6552 0.9642 1.0 0.53156089321126 0.21946235351072502 0.105918050115718 0.029396590262436
24 South Korea KOR h 64.85 1.6567 1.551 0.0 0.0076 0.0009894608243 0.000171140647355 1.4030447067e-05 2.393327773e-06
29 Russia RUS h 76.95 1.4615 0.6284 0.0 0.37 0.09257744300220198 0.028887864607788 0.004951444624501 0.001541036599196

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140625-091929" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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