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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140614-180027.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0605 0.2008 0.037383306138488996 0.0077803663246190004 0.000983321900041 0.00012415756479899998
2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7348 0.9261 0.6678955094205781 0.46554173698653295 0.284790775739534 0.131336724183037
3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.0017 0.0178 0.0013606967950910002 0.00038711398145199993 8.245161072600002e-05 1.3396050361e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4946 0.7787 0.35565989680600607 0.15020538138486098 0.05611228934584299 0.015773837496358
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1631 0.5723 0.26845275221827997 0.114949348803066 0.033022621056872 0.009581601579548
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.9665 0.998 0.7917876353249079 0.676946154131806 0.54777134642613 0.43973049358077504
7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.3024 0.7751 0.318360822567516 0.20071880010543897 0.107849946856928 0.043194899954621
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.1765 0.5615 0.258160567735618 0.07891122298480799 0.02908366527396 0.006837866736789
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0008 0.0317 0.006274528306278001 0.002037630358431 0.000492328591291 6.443897007900001e-05
10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.7313 0.9375 0.5517190536878679 0.16523593600559303 0.08077381014769401 0.033303425408018
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.0949 0.2627 0.096132024615035 0.018320640359521 0.00530702516483 0.001055899547211
12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0028 0.3814 0.10399465440657901 0.043042344151247004 0.013693162446886 0.002441053823921
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2484 0.563 0.234715854680692 0.103772888774276 0.033526850816918 0.009297646520363
14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.3467 0.6325 0.342460275448995 0.119746959584041 0.052709022517984 0.016112928607952
15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0247 0.248 0.06667650821412201 0.040559680800592 0.021621512426909 0.009954881575605
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.5214 0.7896 0.447316650987302 0.24263952825014 0.091721515714973 0.038233781368489
17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6671 0.8794 0.681767675631685 0.446897388820407 0.20012035136011302 0.1101509188919
18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.0824 0.3108 0.152338104194489 0.05191435059626 0.015872866815519 0.0033613869332479993
19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.0199 0.1866 0.074538393375153 0.022935388234137002 0.007289772919523001 0.0013604823646400001
20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0572 0.2015 0.048526871021689 0.014153276805786997 0.003014308487648 0.0004362177165280001
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.0355 0.1959 0.059004787344785994 0.015831180317173 0.002473817217283 0.00045208824533
22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.2019 0.4528 0.207623873517644 0.055380437941410995 0.020369924561831003 0.005171701584096
23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.0723 0.3144 0.11247672610252 0.026988777335301004 0.007501742439723001 0.001192184180413
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1493 0.3937 0.10518018660304099 0.029397962690186998 0.005674406439491999 0.001003690929009
25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0299 0.5889 0.1686089001155 0.071754466411227 0.023828976369959 0.004494649957674
26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6712 0.9591 0.54293625426993 0.35009929287512703 0.18991583516884802 0.07114455767273499
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0666 0.3057 0.112733023224745 0.037479597258895 0.0076480244412330005 0.001728196001329
28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1573 0.4833 0.272078081051871 0.11206770439934001 0.039522059828872004 0.010585280264188
29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.2956 0.6268 0.23274951518220202 0.08569437668016201 0.02418353576706 0.005913757628505001
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.173 0.4459 0.161354551101935 0.06484541525041701 0.019026045794062998 0.004463204386504001
31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.3565 0.652 0.356889085517208 0.12693515473987702 0.056732900688812996 0.017738498561604
32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0932 0.3265 0.162843234392228 0.05682949665785501 0.017283785662499 0.0037461517143679997

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-180027" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 86.424ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub