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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140615-180820.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1191 1.1659 0.0579 0.1952 0.036424351061179 0.007688083870116999 0.000967940717098 0.00012199650442799998
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8521 0.4498 0.7378 0.9231 0.669153690629989 0.467292392203027 0.286948436964425 0.132452016586516
3 Australia AUS b 69.04 1.6546 1.2727 0.0014 0.0188 0.001502132461494 0.000418420190164 9.813162268100001e-05 1.4951622330999999e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.06 2.1405 0.7355 0.494 0.7702 0.35398084149785103 0.15070395681582802 0.056957054477554 0.016005868555175
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.23 2.3098 0.9905 0.1563 0.5714 0.27072813174750304 0.11390081529067698 0.032274104408168004 0.009366052204904
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.3847 0.5572 0.9649 0.9985 0.7909921292326378 0.662648723237825 0.535476505970793 0.4293919820454051
7 Chile CHI b 86.79 2.7203 0.7033 0.3089 0.7775 0.32517361030001696 0.20564290993294299 0.11069674968555801 0.044253875021353
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.17 2.2141 1.0043 0.223 0.7856 0.396564882481183 0.12667741025675802 0.047280661787377 0.011073432141097
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.05 1.3531 0.9672 0.0005 0.0298 0.0059167607399 0.002030898321476 0.00050165328915 6.601124729999999e-05
10 Colombia COL c 87.69 2.3949 0.4158 0.7583 0.9634 0.639789688891305 0.21912853950966102 0.11844176260523699 0.0548567708995
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.48 1.5852 0.6767 0.4086 0.7207 0.28570992191835 0.07687720348953599 0.025730341431614 0.005516542951911
12 Croatia CRO a 76.22 1.8052 0.9215 0.0024 0.369 0.10030995231990701 0.0430733997738 0.013852461825283002 0.002455447825178
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.8 2.0274 0.7549 0.0652 0.2608 0.10069729502680098 0.046322113969542 0.016973577804599 0.004362080146484999
14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1617 0.7381 0.0878 0.3271 0.14868249793796098 0.040202561241898 0.016992790784497 0.005524393194063001
15 Spain ESP b 86.78 2.6112 0.6368 0.0262 0.2454 0.06664887448261 0.03947419375794001 0.021011159056281998 0.009582440515954001
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4866 0.6193 0.5314 0.7922 0.449212657839562 0.242839747796284 0.091540208359797 0.038233900902204
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1972 0.7786 0.6787 0.8802 0.683404028823731 0.451317131423418 0.20090516412446902 0.11109809187912598
18 Ghana GHA g 77.38 1.9044 0.9135 0.0816 0.3018 0.14859687808906197 0.05105417713117201 0.015596910942501001 0.003310390848815
19 Greece GRE c 74.29 1.2891 0.6597 0.0083 0.1502 0.061322198355181004 0.017558966033765 0.005117412276015001 0.0008303044895650001
20 Honduras HON e 70.01 1.5756 1.1482 0.0549 0.1848 0.045816356116653 0.013458570307540002 0.002951913875717 0.000430151355833
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2971 0.8897 0.0345 0.1929 0.059689398843650994 0.016234538670981 0.0025638858085879996 0.00046172922947800005
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.036 0.8097 0.4459 0.7385 0.334496436088353 0.10502096966347599 0.040179384711787995 0.009978772877724001
23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.0751 1.3309 0.0104 0.1008 0.039641256080509 0.010286802933411998 0.002769566700282 0.000408562163335
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6883 1.0835 0.1431 0.3966 0.10396660712500999 0.029566665341363995 0.005646879534984 0.001004713517251
25 Mexico MEX a 77.77 1.5407 0.6249 0.0322 0.6027 0.174543629923365 0.076994412010963 0.025790269987319 0.00492105493235
26 Netherlands NED b 86.92 2.8119 0.747 0.6635 0.9583 0.53491291054009 0.349869734758104 0.19037104847514602 0.071277713224981
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.07 1.6598 0.8902 0.0714 0.3126 0.11735989567325501 0.038948328996699 0.008048709304947 0.0017935287350929999
28 Portugal POR g 80.99 2.1415 0.8184 0.148 0.4785 0.266863465738583 0.109921489140741 0.039100858787321995 0.010385546391939001
29 Russia RUS h 78.98 1.6544 0.625 0.305 0.638 0.23666097320387602 0.087296861700774 0.024848188953014997 0.006036021482872
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.03 1.9791 0.9216 0.3485 0.7622 0.287342574122598 0.113168414197827 0.031614075193615004 0.007625838605459999
31 Uruguay URU d 80.89 2.194 0.8617 0.0577 0.2137 0.093793118247137 0.024094854888292997 0.009821768968795 0.003035806838738
32 USA USA g 77.76 2.0627 1.0004 0.0917 0.3395 0.17010285446074097 0.060286713144002 0.018930421565380003 0.004124011063638

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-180820" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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