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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140622-205351.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0375 0.464 0.075568010473102 0.013951597992921002 0.0016160432939789997 0.000251747366262
2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8916 1.0 0.722422350012624 0.49022799260819705 0.308102832725273 0.142115666188177
3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.9625 1.0 0.49376570546361603 0.19275794009456199 0.085981933065787 0.023227767259389
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1860000000000004 0.5158 0.9207 0.9942 0.7507434230353219 0.603698035872239 0.45799770239705706 0.35665989937439596
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4043 1.0 0.4501401791314871 0.29591498909513103 0.161292176802226 0.071632752762048
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.0113 0.7456 0.396753305397685 0.14882025379678698 0.055595345540515 0.013332926499347999
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.9887 1.0 0.6581171560781078 0.212505237350639 0.10649163583662599 0.05428381858030001
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.8888 1.0 0.468605362836943 0.15617581181334197 0.053426209700626 0.011865500214628998
12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.038 0.393 0.12706289314225 0.06389454555509701 0.023215822646159 0.0053667139893210005
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.7909999999999999 0.0033 0.3776 0.11580827893684299 0.052747897384450994 0.021929774227177 0.005298470502104999
14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9966 0.9999 0.7224180614921341 0.404977325593845 0.15655720083825 0.08380214565152601
17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.7487 0.9781 0.774715942894841 0.46258765917385497 0.21866545376094 0.122260508016135
18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.9179999999999999 0.0 0.1557 0.066777797055776 0.021284467123358002 0.007999639309634 0.001645049639456
19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2137 0.09036643822917698 0.025415634750067 0.007162235064396999 0.0012281790206680001
20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0208 0.0037553013645109995 0.001079545657474 0.000275534719184 3.4825224913e-05
21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1282 0.024938176636487005 0.0063290861426349996 0.000888847419898 0.000201501305461
22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0535 0.5939 0.204453491681416 0.042397056228096 0.014268941354011001 0.004447468007765
23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0407 0.016851014310482998 0.004544083945002 0.001197881081526 0.000188715572784
24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.0 0.0214 0.004860458732567001 0.0012250230343660003 0.000179265536532 4.2247511684e-05
25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0413 0.6128 0.18167401788360302 0.08589412016836298 0.028879464318128996 0.006104904264444
26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5957 1.0 0.490379486807256 0.31794634362198404 0.164257254163874 0.063729437816563
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1084 0.8718 0.24028674536026395 0.07931872531548799 0.017649248828919998 0.004377692520601
28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.9259999999999999 0.0357 0.2273 0.11053050360597501 0.03845671190495201 0.014188277423056 0.0033995258855400003
29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.0 0.5146 0.151184621989104 0.050246152771788 0.010281476490105999 0.003232656535767
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0001 0.6017 0.17037108619716101 0.073428359415329 0.028967396146895 0.006402794191511
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.0577 0.4061 0.16485323146630898 0.042793887803178 0.016714247357006 0.005873087909285999
32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.2156 0.6389 0.32259695978504 0.11138151578675501 0.036218159952208 0.008993998189924999

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-205351" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 53.956ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub