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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140623-175427.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 74.28 2.0432 1.2319 0.0366 0.6347 0.150737800100143 0.043463583640516 0.008107590859251 0.002132732777771
2 Argentina ARG f 89.64 2.7388 0.425 0.8875 1.0 0.7224527296175981 0.48677291051594207 0.30943543065918294 0.142647445542212
3 Australia AUS b 70.26 1.7863 1.3032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 83.29 2.1563 0.6524 0.9634 1.0 0.5343750815599171 0.223168547320466 0.10727694582902002 0.031466144040565
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.34 2.1914 0.9794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Brazil BRA a 91.1 3.1656 0.5023 0.92 0.9949 0.7400501641962841 0.5958894661686569 0.449340446589498 0.35193418803627097
7 Chile CHI b 87.76 2.7339 0.6197 0.0 1.0 0.2942470657647 0.17136733591109302 0.089005829648733 0.047661673657800004
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.68 2.2768 1.0128 0.0143 0.7564 0.40585721351274895 0.15708534790243803 0.059493312210518 0.014441759563277
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.34 1.4876 1.1228 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.41 2.4118 0.4555 0.9857 1.0 0.6568354460292191 0.21138684300474497 0.104182167573806 0.053492265924939
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.47 1.5821 0.6114 0.8857 1.0 0.46654925395525704 0.158879933914279 0.054384836455098 0.012036605900106002
12 Croatia CRO a 79.81 2.0425 0.8417 0.0386 0.3919 0.13272175112416199 0.06751395283044201 0.024967373201922997 0.005878263065363001
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9854 0.7933 0.0032 0.3746 0.11602493907316498 0.051997109357612 0.021983012408494 0.005304300596944001
14 England ENG d 81.42 2.1295 0.7809 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4815 0.6539 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 87.8 2.7457 0.6228 0.9961 0.9998 0.720223308263229 0.390636569758475 0.151372729703417 0.082079358744453
17 Germany GER g 88.74 3.1773 0.7828 0.8467 0.9971 0.775223373018302 0.46506863949774196 0.213707621896177 0.123205314889703
18 Ghana GHA g 78.98 1.9887 0.8644 0.0 0.2044 0.08677433453530199 0.02963209701022 0.012123590112918001 0.0027353422557079995
19 Greece GRE c 72.85 1.1093 0.6108 0.0 0.2004 0.081669163008617 0.022593790438476 0.006067427387964001 0.000974930384837
20 Honduras HON e 68.27 1.5098 1.2066 0.0 0.0223 0.003712516808648 0.001062423058225 0.000275760284561 3.4495264132e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.87 1.1287 0.742 0.0 0.1211 0.023315098765523998 0.005396422208910999 0.000746415819703 0.00017279961640599998
22 Italy ITA d 79.21 1.9401 0.8138 0.0573 0.5957 0.206544395775119 0.043328890877385 0.014406954327206999 0.004510999602874001
23 Japan JPN c 73.34 1.972 1.2427 0.0 0.0432 0.01786554885068 0.004952283833497 0.001307648616763 0.000204132261473
24 South Korea KOR h 64.44 1.6461 1.5618 0.0 0.0075 0.000986414349757 0.00017068208633099998 1.5840076398e-05 2.4634214419999996e-06
25 Mexico MEX a 78.39 1.4714 0.5366 0.0414 0.6132 0.187840654630899 0.08863051583148598 0.029839016333185 0.00628993113446
26 Netherlands NED b 86.2 2.7928 0.8062 1.0 1.0 0.6451403642838779 0.43569394426061103 0.228161130059314 0.083699605247351
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.09 1.5318 0.732 0.1125 0.8789 0.243779661228361 0.076814427991768 0.017456832829478002 0.0043823743976800006
28 Portugal POR g 78.88 2.0901 0.9426 0.0 0.0436 0.018802765247643002 0.0063237213487509995 0.0026190041685570003 0.000595375397513
29 Russia RUS h 76.91 1.4624 0.6276 0.0 0.3578 0.08983094416939 0.028018270293539 0.005323707408388 0.001599452077532
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.16 2.1622 1.0454 0.0007 0.6033 0.17049174624370098 0.07245300808455 0.028979719694735003 0.006365719272579
31 Uruguay URU d 81.47 2.2401 0.8513 0.057 0.4043 0.164678978868231 0.04267769502692 0.016466148888132 0.005845243875117
32 USA USA g 78.74 2.1609 1.0022 0.1533 0.7549 0.343269287019703 0.119021587827036 0.04295350695757 0.010307083051496

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140623-175427" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 18.411ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub