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2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-matches-20150608-210138.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

36 rows sorted by team1

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2

Link rowid date group team1 ▼ team2 team1_win team2_win tie
17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.4487057 0.31095443 0.24033987
32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27613862 0.48795485 0.23590653
12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 0.65137358 0.14963584 0.19899059
22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.63926432 0.15802159 0.20271409
6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.68472298 0.12735695 0.18792006
14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.34257201 0.41474605 0.24268194
28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45482464 0.30540705 0.23976832
11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.30541949 0.45481086 0.23976965
35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02424459 0.87699696 0.09875845
29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00397195 0.95213257 0.04389547
23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62714796 0.1665694 0.20628264
34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.70104718 0.11689206 0.18206076
9 2015-06-09 F France England 0.49457559 0.2704421 0.23498231
21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.80195522 0.05892907 0.13911571
4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0.0
13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.71641872 0.10730621 0.17627506
15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.4938044 0.27110306 0.23509254
26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.0723037 0.77670304 0.15099326
8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 0.68806675 0.12518964 0.18674361
20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75976043 0.0817134 0.15852617
33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09503891 0.73674066 0.16822043
27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20691236 0.57271057 0.22037708
2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0
31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08912432 0.74682761 0.16404807
3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0.0
24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.65051137 0.15022772 0.19926091
36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36616013 0.39037377 0.2434661
10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.66252426 0.14205312 0.19542262
5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.0 0.0 1.0
18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86839285 0.02779821 0.10380894
30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45716647 0.3032958 0.23953773
25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00377426 0.95442334 0.0418024
7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 0.6819505 0.12916321 0.18888628
19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57418801 0.20577544 0.22003655

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150608-210138" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 37.839ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub