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2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-matches-20150613-175552.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

36 rows sorted by team1

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2, team1_win, team2_win, tie

Link rowid date group team1 ▼ team2 team1_win team2_win tie
17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.0 0.0 0.0
32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29687584 0.46433246 0.2387917
12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.0 0.0 0.0
22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 1.0 0.0 0.0
6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.0 0.0 1.0
14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.0 0.0 0.0
28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45529279 0.30498446 0.23972274
11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.0 0.0 1.0
35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02937191 0.86467158 0.10595651
29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00359532 0.9565011 0.03990358
23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 1.0 0.0 0.0
34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.6413394 0.15657342 0.20208718
9 2015-06-09 F France England 1.0 0.0 0.0
21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.0 1.0 0.0
4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0.0
13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.0 0.0 1.0
15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.0 1.0 0.0
26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05376102 0.81214405 0.13409493
8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.0 0.0 0.0
20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.0 0.0 0.0
33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.11135664 0.70987222 0.17877113
27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20885898 0.57018797 0.22095305
2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0
31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08402608 0.75568777 0.16028615
3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0.0
24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62160915 0.17052918 0.20786166
36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37869813 0.37773655 0.24356532
10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 1.0
5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.0 0.0 1.0
18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.46185277 0.2990905 0.23905673
25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.0040038 0.95176396 0.04423224
7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.0 0.0 0.0
19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.0 0.0 1.0

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150613-175552" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 21.527ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub