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Forecast Review: forecast_results_2018.csv

This table contains the data behind How FiveThirtyEight's 2018 Midterm Forecasts Did.

forecast_results_2018.csv contains FiveThirtyEight's final classic, deluxe, and lite election forecasts for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race as of the morning of Nov. 6, 2018. It also contains columns indicating whether the Democrat or the Republican won, or if a race was uncalled as of December 3, 2018.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

1,518 rows

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Suggested facets: branch, version, category, Democrat_Won, Republican_Won, uncalled

Link rowid cycle branch race forecastdate version Democrat_WinProbability Republican_WinProbability category Democrat_Won Republican_Won uncalled
1 2018 Governor AK-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.31095999 0.68904001 Lean R 0 1 0
2 2018 Governor AL-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.016919999999999998 0.98308003 Safe R 0 1 0
3 2018 Governor AR-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.00062000001 0.99937999 Safe R 0 1 0
4 2018 Governor AZ-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0128 0.98720002 Safe R 0 1 0
5 2018 Governor CA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.98794001 0.01206 Solid D 1 0 0
6 2018 Governor CO-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.9497 0.050299998 Likely D 1 0 0
7 2018 Governor CT-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.78996003 0.21004 Likely D 1 0 0
8 2018 Governor FL-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.77215999 0.22784001 Likely D 0 1 0
9 2018 Governor GA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.3224 0.67760003 Lean R 0 1 0
10 2018 Governor HI-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.99853998 0.0014600001000000002 Solid D 1 0 0
11 2018 Governor IA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.57315999 0.42684001 Tossup (Tilt D) 0 1 0
12 2018 Governor ID-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0174 0.98259997 Safe R 0 1 0
13 2018 Governor IL-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.83969998 0.1603 Likely D 1 0 0
14 2018 Governor KS-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.42814001 0.57151997 Tossup (Tilt R) 1 0 0
15 2018 Governor MA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0007999999799999999 0.99919999 Safe R 0 1 0
16 2018 Governor MD-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0073199999 0.99268001 Safe R 0 1 0
17 2018 Governor ME-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.94651997 0.053479999 Likely D 1 0 0
18 2018 Governor MI-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.93129998 0.068700001 Likely D 1 0 0
19 2018 Governor MN-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.93074 0.069260001 Likely D 1 0 0
20 2018 Governor NE-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.00942 0.99058002 Safe R 0 1 0
21 2018 Governor NH-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.13988 0.8601200000000001 Likely R 0 1 0
22 2018 Governor NM-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.94032001 0.05968 Likely D 1 0 0
23 2018 Governor NV-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.51521999 0.48478001 Tossup (Tilt D) 1 0 0
24 2018 Governor NY-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.99265999 0.00734 Solid D 1 0 0
25 2018 Governor OH-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.59491998 0.40507999 Tossup (Tilt D) 0 1 0
26 2018 Governor OK-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.14307999999999998 0.8569200000000001 Likely R 0 1 0
27 2018 Governor OR-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.82336003 0.17664000000000002 Likely D 1 0 0
28 2018 Governor PA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.99048001 0.0095199998 Solid D 1 0 0
29 2018 Governor RI-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.97869998 0.021299999 Solid D 1 0 0
30 2018 Governor SC-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.025580000000000002 0.97442001 Safe R 0 1 0
31 2018 Governor SD-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.36921999 0.63077998 Lean R 0 1 0
32 2018 Governor TN-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.023360001000000002 0.97663999 Safe R 0 1 0
33 2018 Governor TX-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0047800001 0.99522001 Safe R 0 1 0
34 2018 Governor VT-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.06097999999999999 0.93901998 Likely R 0 1 0
35 2018 Governor WI-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.59653997 0.40346 Tossup (Tilt D) 1 0 0
36 2018 Governor WY-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0011 0.9989 Safe R 0 1 0
37 2018 House AK-1 11/6/18 classic 0.3475 0.65249997 Lean R 0 1 0
38 2018 House AL-1 11/6/18 classic 0.00044 0.99956 Safe R 0 1 0
39 2018 House AL-2 11/6/18 classic 0.022539998999999998 0.97746003 Safe R 0 1 0
40 2018 House AL-3 11/6/18 classic 0.0018 0.9982 Safe R 0 1 0
41 2018 House AL-4 11/6/18 classic 0.0 1.0 Safe R 0 1 0
42 2018 House AL-5 11/6/18 classic 0.00106 0.99893999 Safe R 0 1 0
43 2018 House AL-6 11/6/18 classic 7.9999998e-05 0.99992001 Safe R 0 1 0
44 2018 House AL-7 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
45 2018 House AR-1 11/6/18 classic 0.00039999998999999995 0.99959999 Safe R 0 1 0
46 2018 House AR-2 11/6/18 classic 0.13928001 0.86071998 Likely R 0 1 0
47 2018 House AR-3 11/6/18 classic 0.0006799999999999999 0.99931997 Safe R 0 1 0
48 2018 House AR-4 11/6/18 classic 0.00031999999 0.99967998 Safe R 0 1 0
49 2018 House AZ-1 11/6/18 classic 0.89223999 0.10776 Likely D 1 0 0
50 2018 House AZ-2 11/6/18 classic 0.96737999 0.032620002 Solid D 1 0 0
51 2018 House AZ-3 11/6/18 classic 0.99992001 7.9999998e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
52 2018 House AZ-4 11/6/18 classic 0.00028000001 0.99971998 Safe R 0 1 0
53 2018 House AZ-5 11/6/18 classic 0.0008599999699999999 0.99914002 Safe R 0 1 0
54 2018 House AZ-6 11/6/18 classic 0.09216000099999999 0.90784001 Likely R 0 1 0
55 2018 House AZ-7 11/6/18 classic 0.99997997 1.9999999e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
56 2018 House AZ-8 11/6/18 classic 0.22824 0.77175999 Likely R 0 1 0
57 2018 House AZ-9 11/6/18 classic 0.99572003 0.00428 Solid D 1 0 0
58 2018 House CA-1 11/6/18 classic 0.21362001 0.78637999 Likely R 0 1 0
59 2018 House CA-10 11/6/18 classic 0.7748 0.2252 Likely D 1 0 0
60 2018 House CA-11 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
61 2018 House CA-12 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
62 2018 House CA-13 11/6/18 classic 0.99997997 1.9999999e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
63 2018 House CA-14 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
64 2018 House CA-15 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
65 2018 House CA-16 11/6/18 classic 0.98181999 0.01818 Solid D 1 0 0
66 2018 House CA-17 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
67 2018 House CA-18 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
68 2018 House CA-19 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
69 2018 House CA-2 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
70 2018 House CA-20 11/6/18 classic 0.99988002 0.00011999999999999999 Solid D 1 0 0
71 2018 House CA-21 11/6/18 classic 0.2102 0.78979999 Likely R 1 0 1
72 2018 House CA-22 11/6/18 classic 0.045960002 0.95403999 Safe R 0 1 0
73 2018 House CA-23 11/6/18 classic 0.00063999998 0.99936002 Safe R 0 1 0
74 2018 House CA-24 11/6/18 classic 0.98526001 0.014740000000000001 Solid D 1 0 0
75 2018 House CA-25 11/6/18 classic 0.63661999 0.36338001 Lean D 1 0 0
76 2018 House CA-26 11/6/18 classic 0.99985999 0.00014 Solid D 1 0 0
77 2018 House CA-27 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
78 2018 House CA-28 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
79 2018 House CA-29 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
80 2018 House CA-3 11/6/18 classic 0.99966002 0.00033999999999999997 Solid D 1 0 0
81 2018 House CA-30 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
82 2018 House CA-31 11/6/18 classic 0.9988600000000001 0.0011399999000000001 Solid D 1 0 0
83 2018 House CA-32 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
84 2018 House CA-33 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
85 2018 House CA-34 11/6/18 classic 0.99993998 5.9999997999999996e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
86 2018 House CA-35 11/6/18 classic 0.99996001 3.9999999e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
87 2018 House CA-36 11/6/18 classic 0.99809998 0.0019 Solid D 1 0 0
88 2018 House CA-37 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
89 2018 House CA-38 11/6/18 classic 0.99997997 1.9999999e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
90 2018 House CA-39 11/6/18 classic 0.58230001 0.41769999 Tossup (Tilt D) 1 0 0
91 2018 House CA-4 11/6/18 classic 0.15448 0.84552002 Likely R 0 1 0
92 2018 House CA-40 11/6/18 classic 0.99981999 0.00018 Solid D 1 0 0
93 2018 House CA-41 11/6/18 classic 0.99985999 0.00014 Solid D 1 0 0
94 2018 House CA-42 11/6/18 classic 0.02314 0.97685999 Safe R 0 1 0
95 2018 House CA-43 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
96 2018 House CA-44 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
97 2018 House CA-45 11/6/18 classic 0.63200003 0.368 Lean D 1 0 0
98 2018 House CA-46 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
99 2018 House CA-47 11/6/18 classic 0.99989998 9.9999997e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
100 2018 House CA-48 11/6/18 classic 0.56573999 0.43426001 Tossup (Tilt D) 1 0 0

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CREATE TABLE "forecast-review/forecast_results_2018" (
"cycle" INTEGER,
  "branch" TEXT,
  "race" TEXT,
  "forecastdate" TEXT,
  "version" TEXT,
  "Democrat_WinProbability" REAL,
  "Republican_WinProbability" REAL,
  "category" TEXT,
  "Democrat_Won" INTEGER,
  "Republican_Won" INTEGER,
  "uncalled" INTEGER
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 54.972ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub