home / fivethirtyeight

2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-forecast-20150612-205525.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

24 rows

View and edit SQL

Suggested facets: group, group_first, group_second, group_third_no_advance, group_fourth, sixteen, final, win

Link rowid team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
1 USA D 95.45258729 3.70670664 0.43661394 0.8312 0.14365 0.015 0.00025 0.0099 0.98985 0.88025 0.75275 0.44685 0.3122
2 Germany B 95.74933425 3.79385302 0.39593267 0.959 0.03695 0.004 5e-05 0.0 0.99995 0.82 0.6119 0.3776 0.27175
3 Japan C 92.5861873 2.83997609 0.53550587 0.8636 0.10085 0.0355 5e-05 0.0 0.99995 0.77695 0.39465 0.23615 0.09095
4 Brazil E 92.29951461 2.79851577 0.57728392 0.8985 0.0896 0.0098 0.00015 0.00195 0.9979 0.53345 0.2964 0.17885 0.06695
5 France F 92.46626518 2.85230995 0.58571044 0.89625 0.08355 0.01395 0.00035 0.0059 0.99375 0.7605 0.29395 0.13005 0.06625
6 Canada A 89.71423 2.24317949 0.66146145 0.68945 0.1246 0.1859 5e-05 0.0 0.99995 0.7251 0.3965 0.1864 0.06505
7 Sweden D 91.63559023 2.75974428 0.72676405 0.1258 0.39885 0.14035 0.2259 0.1091 0.665 0.3449 0.20835 0.1042 0.0409
8 Norway B 89.1380438 2.22887301 0.7819542 0.0402 0.9595 0.00025 5e-05 0.0 0.99995 0.54075 0.2737 0.10485 0.0264
9 England F 89.31446506 2.211016 0.72119016 0.0595 0.6252 0.18555 0.02805 0.1017 0.87025 0.4109 0.2021 0.0759 0.02065
10 Australia D 89.24755427 2.41965105 0.96530941 0.04195 0.43645 0.4439 0.0432 0.0345 0.9223 0.29705 0.13865 0.05915 0.0187
11 Netherlands A 86.04379842 1.83680314 1.01017759 0.15005 0.1048 0.60015 0.04005 0.10495 0.855 0.30105 0.09495 0.0292 0.00625
12 China A 85.32763332 1.45250263 0.72668872 0.1605 0.50095 0.1328 0.00725 0.1985 0.79425 0.3954 0.09105 0.01945 0.00415
13 Switzerland C 84.20604951 1.96055439 1.48994284 0.04245 0.614 0.34285 0.0007 0.0 0.9993 0.40075 0.0799 0.01735 0.00335
14 Spain E 84.13540785 1.56336958 1.06773886 0.0739 0.35895 0.1157 0.25755 0.1939 0.54855 0.12285 0.02885 0.0077 0.0017
15 South Korea E 83.89662686 1.67874704 1.23633693 0.0181 0.42005 0.2752 0.06065 0.226 0.71335 0.1334 0.0297 0.00565 0.00155
16 Cameroon C 80.405168 1.21596261 1.31293477 0.0939 0.28515 0.61855 0.0024 0.0 0.9976 0.2728 0.05185 0.0093 0.00095
17 Nigeria D 86.0202311 1.7712394 0.94300306 0.00105 0.02105 0.0615 0.0699 0.8465 0.0836 0.01615 0.0063 0.00235 0.0008
18 New Zealand A 82.46137284 1.37130291 1.14593139 0.0 0.26965 0.0338 0.0 0.69655 0.30345 0.1308 0.0166 0.0027 0.00065
19 Mexico F 81.00151371 1.51370976 1.54272389 0.0279 0.17205 0.098 0.32395 0.3781 0.29795 0.0712 0.02075 0.00455 0.0006
20 Colombia F 78.09182807 0.85181403 1.27586629 0.01635 0.1192 0.076 0.27415 0.5143 0.21155 0.03835 0.0089 0.00165 0.0002
21 Costa Rica E 73.74211141 0.87175706 1.94324525 0.0095 0.1314 0.09415 0.1868 0.57815 0.23505 0.01375 0.0012 5e-05 0.0
22 Thailand B 68.21170173 0.92110512 2.75637495 0.0007 0.00355 0.516 0.4775 0.00225 0.52025 0.0135 0.00095 5e-05 0.0
23 Ivory Coast B 71.28425747 1.32768145 2.78682572 0.0 0.0 0.0011 0.00115 0.99775 0.0011 0.00015 5e-05 0.0 0.0
24 Ecuador C 55.09552372 0.49286832 3.94070708 0.0 0.0 5e-05 0.0 0.99995 5e-05 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Advanced export

JSON shape: default, array

CSV options:

CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150612-205525" (
"team" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "wspi" REAL,
  "wspi_offense" REAL,
  "wspi_defense" REAL,
  "group_first" REAL,
  "group_second" REAL,
  "group_third_advance" REAL,
  "group_third_no_advance" REAL,
  "group_fourth" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "final" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 22.676ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub