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2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-forecast-20150616-190139.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

24 rows

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Suggested facets: group, group_first, group_second, group_third_advance, group_third_no_advance, group_fourth, sixteen, quarter, semi, final, win

Link rowid team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
1 Germany B 95.70034207 3.75431823 0.3877541 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.825 0.6887 0.43315 0.3128
2 USA D 95.27472923 3.60698345 0.4169176 0.84265 0.1371 0.02025 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8501 0.7505 0.44015 0.2959
3 Japan C 92.21704726 2.74702985 0.54830386 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7868 0.3966 0.2355 0.08475
4 Brazil E 92.21287802 2.74900043 0.55168896 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.53295 0.2931 0.174 0.066
5 Canada A 89.48649085 2.20473047 0.67332341 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.75195 0.42905 0.19805 0.06355
6 France F 91.86524257 2.75970786 0.66401264 0.266 0.4891 0.13755 5e-05 0.1073 0.89265 0.56365 0.2785 0.1312 0.05275
7 Sweden D 91.46293885 2.68573878 0.69560211 0.07845 0.39105 0.20375 0.26755 0.0592 0.67325 0.29995 0.1787 0.08565 0.0324
8 Norway B 89.02696289 2.21752966 0.79455522 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5272 0.25205 0.095 0.02665
9 England F 89.2290883 2.20725007 0.73653426 0.5163 0.1666 0.3057 0.00965 0.00175 0.9886 0.51715 0.1728 0.05755 0.0224
10 Australia D 89.23060701 2.41777179 0.9666718 0.07425 0.4555 0.38525 0.04655 0.03845 0.915 0.2985 0.1534 0.06225 0.0206
11 Netherlands A 86.25607303 1.85880014 0.9897645 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2261 0.07055 0.02415 0.00625
12 China A 85.25455133 1.48967961 0.77701653 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.6054 0.1093 0.0181 0.00585
13 Switzerland C 83.84739945 1.94774836 1.53424908 0.0 0.0 0.99835 0.00165 0.0 0.99835 0.24725 0.0832 0.01985 0.0032
14 Spain E 83.90830449 1.48397841 1.01580528 0.0 0.54665 0.0133 0.0784 0.36165 0.55995 0.19425 0.0269 0.00615 0.0024
15 Cameroon C 81.48235683 1.34752078 1.27597973 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.3946 0.04715 0.0061 0.00155
16 Nigeria D 86.03600803 1.77622587 0.94234149 0.00465 0.01635 0.0614 0.01525 0.90235 0.0824 0.0149 0.00695 0.0027 0.00115
17 Colombia F 80.04607031 1.05188111 1.18387122 0.2177 0.2691 0.5132 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.19315 0.0361 0.00595 0.00095
18 South Korea E 83.2825222 1.67716927 1.33603797 0.0 0.348 0.01365 0.1257 0.51265 0.36165 0.1248 0.0179 0.0031 0.0007
19 Mexico F 81.27495477 1.54422152 1.52524933 0.0 0.0752 0.03385 0.0 0.89095 0.10905 0.02445 0.0073 0.00135 0.00015
20 Thailand B 68.30894912 0.89896963 2.71027826 0.0 0.0 0.2417 0.7583 0.0 0.2417 0.00375 0.0001 5e-05 0.0
21 Costa Rica E 74.44848919 0.98077628 1.95310589 0.0 0.10535 0.07205 0.6969 0.1257 0.1774 0.0181 0.00115 0.0 0.0
22 New Zealand A 82.77428063 1.47330966 1.19937434 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Ivory Coast B 71.84341174 1.38046923 2.75918414 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 Ecuador C 57.99573693 0.48329002 3.56375946 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150616-190139" (
"team" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "wspi" REAL,
  "wspi_offense" REAL,
  "wspi_defense" REAL,
  "group_first" REAL,
  "group_second" REAL,
  "group_third_advance" REAL,
  "group_third_no_advance" REAL,
  "group_fourth" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "final" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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