home / fivethirtyeight

2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-matches-20150608-210138.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

36 rows

View and edit SQL

Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2

Link rowid date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0
3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0.0
4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0.0
5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.0 0.0 1.0
6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 0.6819505 0.12916321 0.18888628
8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 0.68806675 0.12518964 0.18674361
9 2015-06-09 F France England 0.49457559 0.2704421 0.23498231
10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.66252426 0.14205312 0.19542262
11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.30541949 0.45481086 0.23976965
12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 0.65137358 0.14963584 0.19899059
13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.71641872 0.10730621 0.17627506
14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.34257201 0.41474605 0.24268194
15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.4938044 0.27110306 0.23509254
16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.68472298 0.12735695 0.18792006
17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.4487057 0.31095443 0.24033987
18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86839285 0.02779821 0.10380894
19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57418801 0.20577544 0.22003655
20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75976043 0.0817134 0.15852617
21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.80195522 0.05892907 0.13911571
22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.63926432 0.15802159 0.20271409
23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62714796 0.1665694 0.20628264
24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.65051137 0.15022772 0.19926091
25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00377426 0.95442334 0.0418024
26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.0723037 0.77670304 0.15099326
27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20691236 0.57271057 0.22037708
28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45482464 0.30540705 0.23976832
29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00397195 0.95213257 0.04389547
30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45716647 0.3032958 0.23953773
31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08912432 0.74682761 0.16404807
32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27613862 0.48795485 0.23590653
33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09503891 0.73674066 0.16822043
34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.70104718 0.11689206 0.18206076
35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02424459 0.87699696 0.09875845
36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36616013 0.39037377 0.2434661

Advanced export

JSON shape: default, array

CSV options:

CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150608-210138" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 11.379ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub