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2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-matches-20150611-232844.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

36 rows

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2, team1_win, team2_win, tie

Link rowid date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0
3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0.0
4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0.0
5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.0 0.0 1.0
6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.0 0.0 0.0
8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.0 0.0 0.0
9 2015-06-09 F France England 1.0 0.0 0.0
10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 1.0
11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.0 0.0 1.0
12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.0 0.0 0.0
13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.0 0.0 1.0
14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.0 0.0 0.0
15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.0 1.0 0.0
16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.0 0.0 1.0
17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.45068612 0.30915408 0.24015979
18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86502938 0.02921965 0.10575097
19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57898663 0.20209907 0.21891431
20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.754129 0.08491639 0.16095462
21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79873375 0.06059086 0.14067539
22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.65957523 0.14404551 0.19637925
23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62016104 0.17156987 0.20826908
24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62136998 0.17070092 0.20792911
25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00399502 0.95186558 0.0441394
26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05383137 0.81200353 0.13416509
27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20822539 0.57100805 0.22076656
28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45542977 0.30486087 0.23970936
29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00403501 0.95140281 0.04456217
30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45338166 0.3067112 0.23990714
31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08624943 0.75180429 0.16194628
32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.2770526 0.48689798 0.23604942
33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09304052 0.74012659 0.1668329
34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.68710525 0.1258116 0.18708315
35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02830654 0.86718515 0.10450831
36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37192396 0.38453753 0.24353851

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150611-232844" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
)
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