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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-100604.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1188 1.166 0.0603 0.201 0.037555569575109 0.006899842281233001 0.000856068143393 0.00010499958099400001
2 Argentina ARG f 90.51 2.9010000000000002 0.4164 0.8909 0.9803 0.714703609298772 0.5154311358862489 0.338950528114636 0.156336647445427
3 Australia AUS b 68.84 1.649 1.2804 0.002 0.0193 0.001549174364462 0.000437760063812 9.2168767168e-05 1.3412275246e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.1 2.1462 0.7351 0.4991 0.7765 0.35669971354138896 0.13759674493847304 0.052083209056891996 0.014467122330908999
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.81 2.3194 0.9513 0.0299 0.5175 0.21085167633197502 0.087914499671159 0.020783619746830004 0.007003724605965
6 Brazil BRA a 91.61 3.3851 0.5567 0.9711 0.9987 0.791761538294701 0.6639813375460071 0.531645290063012 0.418378228485633
7 Chile CHI b 86.77 2.7182 0.7020000000000001 0.3107 0.78 0.324865683604826 0.20565201964196 0.10536659530655099 0.041614725611809
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.11 2.2107 1.0052 0.2245 0.7855 0.396070268818396 0.12680770071879302 0.043704257843828 0.010089456690945001
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.02 1.3536 0.9693 0.0006 0.0343 0.006824427157475001 0.0023168010809979994 0.0005043903176819999 6.4808199438e-05
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3961 0.4209 0.7524 0.9631 0.6393400088190961 0.218714567972144 0.11377215471245801 0.05124039448456099
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.4 1.5919999999999999 0.6859 0.4128 0.7241 0.288409671345155 0.077523110206009 0.024044064865882005 0.005062467089757001
12 Croatia CRO a 76.37 1.8136 0.9164 0.0018 0.3803 0.10479118353008801 0.045294991742094996 0.013371002608228998 0.002380859204949
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.78 1.9875 0.8012 0.0315 0.1943 0.061039792337266 0.027159314684698 0.009919950203145001 0.002319017734183
14 England ENG d 82.19 2.1702 0.7440000000000001 0.0821 0.3198 0.14635931201560598 0.039131865082865 0.015679780545487 0.005014588782805999
15 Spain ESP b 86.75 2.6107 0.6378 0.0262 0.2443 0.066384675984805 0.03928094325648 0.020178882766791 0.008931703191986001
16 France FRA e 87.49 2.6233 0.5744 0.7127 0.9293 0.577563150779427 0.328219218669834 0.12497943705873199 0.05823796628563
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1985 0.7763 0.672 0.8809 0.6825519251521279 0.42736744692895295 0.189963510091292 0.10256752703167402
18 Ghana GHA g 77.37 1.9046 0.9141 0.0864 0.3166 0.15494031545304301 0.04768044792616901 0.014460063286431001 0.0030260261054250006
19 Greece GRE c 74.35 1.2919999999999998 0.6577 0.0105 0.15 0.06178745691809201 0.017620590529833002 0.004646233121199 0.000752622732655
20 Honduras HON e 68.35 1.5065 1.1953 0.0037 0.0732 0.011522058659242999 0.0034652917596109997 0.000836364631077 9.876049530099999e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2978 0.8898 0.0253 0.192 0.049216415407077 0.013122618380437 0.0019545247193179997 0.000350152674061
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.0362 0.8086 0.4473 0.7438 0.335422687451839 0.105810008875486 0.03749973444659 0.009200351901685
23 Japan JPN c 73.12 2.0752 1.3316 0.0126 0.1014 0.039907774753386 0.010262184415038 0.0025355953502779996 0.000370709948405
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6882 1.0828 0.1376 0.3846 0.10322845650448499 0.026204870119343995 0.004885880552103 0.0008513900920790001
25 Mexico MEX a 77.47 1.5187 0.6278 0.0265 0.5867 0.16788272979902 0.073414939780015 0.022305458528252 0.0041587571184240005
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8015 0.7438 0.6611 0.9564 0.535940587264632 0.350151672319638 0.179035470113906 0.066357705759553
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.02 1.6593 0.8921 0.0539 0.3102 0.098788947833519 0.032474709111210004 0.0065188774358130004 0.001414413354942
28 Portugal POR g 80.92 2.1411 0.8218 0.1527 0.4732 0.265023372455556 0.09881544752777802 0.034691714647166 0.009107633726456999
29 Russia RUS h 78.95 1.6554 0.6267 0.303 0.6379 0.23601483088945102 0.078711819950408 0.022237298224081003 0.005291364734629001
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.31 2.0712 0.8939 0.2521 0.8032 0.27631434935272303 0.117694765706695 0.037666796715576004 0.009118061262746
31 Uruguay URU d 80.77 2.1806 0.8603 0.0578 0.2123 0.09270281987833198 0.023599506768840997 0.009017079233908001 0.0027108672010059997
32 USA USA g 77.53 2.0458 1.0036 0.0889 0.3293 0.163985816428931 0.051241826457748 0.015813998782298 0.0033635338607220003

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-100604" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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