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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-185551.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1188 1.166 0.0604 0.2025 0.033958494636703 0.0060732718700589996 0.0008102548329860001 9.504702053700001e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 90.51 2.9010000000000002 0.4164 0.9005 0.9789 0.7140461469028591 0.526942103896658 0.347532236725768 0.15911700984825
3 Australia AUS b 68.84 1.649 1.2804 0.0015 0.0178 0.0014613465859460001 0.000413483807868 7.9522913787e-05 1.1683349990999998e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.1 2.1462 0.7351 0.5024 0.7781 0.3614648922748979 0.13780178178126098 0.053452233666439 0.014542709591006
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.81 2.3194 0.9513 0.0274 0.5173 0.21131887629160104 0.080233239380854 0.019201986189349 0.006470734729127001
6 Brazil BRA a 91.61 3.3851 0.5567 0.9646 0.9987 0.7915541334019219 0.663660986433713 0.522623480159611 0.41225841026610904
7 Chile CHI b 86.77 2.7182 0.7020000000000001 0.3067 0.7784 0.32280704100429 0.20435595304354 0.104180378433815 0.040918291858245005
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.11 2.2107 1.0052 0.2187 0.7867 0.39688700737914706 0.127206437141908 0.044135071741319004 0.010042402356661997
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.02 1.3536 0.9693 0.0006 0.0297 0.005940434311439999 0.002030470323049 0.000464694760373 5.8379577385000005e-05
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3961 0.4209 0.7616 0.9624 0.638672887845207 0.217910695564631 0.11100550854238199 0.04997640299600299
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.4 1.5919999999999999 0.6859 0.4098 0.7192 0.285826283528858 0.076810516363015 0.023864652452189997 0.004951435569137
12 Croatia CRO a 76.37 1.8136 0.9164 0.0027 0.3869 0.10647463924823901 0.04602830491616 0.013800073542905 0.0024171278227479998
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.78 1.9875 0.8012 0.0283 0.1947 0.059604688978297 0.02714079715222 0.010142816985543002 0.00232239061935
14 England ENG d 82.19 2.1702 0.7440000000000001 0.0834 0.3207 0.146184546579886 0.039463177425694 0.015529302882161 0.004906335701565
15 Spain ESP b 86.75 2.6107 0.6378 0.0269 0.2492 0.067937526034726 0.040235629848062004 0.020178446297349998 0.008923654881871999
16 France FRA e 87.49 2.6233 0.5744 0.7085 0.928 0.578281333123 0.31163601155924603 0.120472402092563 0.055770521066310995
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1985 0.7763 0.8735 0.9789 0.7641115780204741 0.48930461307335993 0.20388676589229301 0.114718265121014
18 Ghana GHA g 77.37 1.9046 0.9141 0.0549 0.358 0.173085410273908 0.051255460807084006 0.01696891720826 0.0033477947699250003
19 Greece GRE c 74.35 1.2919999999999998 0.6577 0.0088 0.1492 0.061267865419609 0.017524671399561 0.004729749289274001 0.0007507555061589999
20 Honduras HON e 68.35 1.5065 1.1953 0.0052 0.0728 0.011770176631658 0.0035780927724940004 0.000866568322376 0.00010100101529899999
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2978 0.8898 0.0232 0.1907 0.048478958985254 0.011702535575323999 0.001789024129255 0.00031766153259400005
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.0362 0.8086 0.446 0.7458 0.337145321398305 0.106016997739415 0.037798354737165 0.009157158992596
23 Japan JPN c 73.12 2.0752 1.3316 0.0109 0.1017 0.039869289538932 0.010315449424544 0.002567346825284 0.000367113606747
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6882 1.0828 0.1401 0.3883 0.09746484836397 0.024151945995352003 0.004757862961663 0.0007999340479839999
25 Mexico MEX a 77.47 1.5187 0.6278 0.0321 0.5847 0.16737521681904097 0.07321068820373901 0.022613443582637994 0.004149813704427
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8015 0.7438 0.6649 0.9546 0.536449662594409 0.35057365720384903 0.180433521596432 0.06626948353811599
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.02 1.6593 0.8921 0.0489 0.3131 0.09959992354761 0.030016835202779 0.006075961528913001 0.001319672120529
28 Portugal POR g 80.92 2.1411 0.8218 0.0135 0.2946 0.160752036494755 0.055045342800249995 0.023213380023521 0.005485369361556
29 Russia RUS h 78.95 1.6554 0.6267 0.2971 0.6311 0.22749489611123 0.074802874116765 0.021834205170477 0.005082348744604
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.31 2.0712 0.8939 0.258 0.8045 0.276899895539729 0.11564777611766802 0.037575821228969006 0.008971614785076
31 Uruguay URU d 80.77 2.1806 0.8603 0.0608 0.2143 0.09414679830995401 0.024242881161266 0.009062891449640998 0.002694118130198
32 USA USA g 77.53 2.0458 1.0036 0.0581 0.3685 0.18166784382418902 0.054667317898632 0.018353123835303003 0.0036853577688740003

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-185551" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 102.885ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub