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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-205307.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1188 1.166 0.0555 0.1961 0.032713282139525006 0.005879493027132 0.000767016827378 9.064079224500002e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 90.51 2.9010000000000002 0.4164 0.9176 0.9867 0.720543978158907 0.532130406747567 0.352757188307464 0.160918014354805
3 Australia AUS b 68.84 1.649 1.2804 0.0015 0.0201 0.0017150722971629997 0.000453959594511 9.0536515986e-05 1.2975969907e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.1 2.1462 0.7351 0.4982 0.7773 0.36032134797696597 0.136803347478126 0.052656757005583005 0.014400769174331
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.81 2.3194 0.9513 0.0345 0.5661 0.231504318038691 0.088836841933831 0.021512101885177 0.007165132355098
6 Brazil BRA a 91.61 3.3851 0.5567 0.9691 0.9989 0.792042920000962 0.664097654831376 0.523866487003988 0.4126187199882779
7 Chile CHI b 86.77 2.7182 0.7020000000000001 0.3071 0.7697 0.322025244824922 0.204419523964215 0.103895448679726 0.040691327408683996
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.11 2.2107 1.0052 0.2214 0.7878 0.398244738845796 0.127858151610029 0.04398925435983099 0.010013761587311
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.02 1.3536 0.9693 0.0005 0.028 0.005575291515511 0.00191285557149 0.000430400394696 5.3445219045e-05
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3961 0.4209 0.7563 0.9592 0.6359847065784531 0.21656456521339398 0.11029996329742899 0.04967107370513099
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.4 1.5919999999999999 0.6859 0.4147 0.7206 0.288470953347291 0.077845511044925 0.024034167432816 0.004980378460736
12 Croatia CRO a 76.37 1.8136 0.9164 0.0031 0.3822 0.105326074293559 0.045672108013036 0.013556032928251003 0.0023783595249200003
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.78 1.9875 0.8012 0.0323 0.1979 0.060871613794728 0.027654791910595 0.010158995933043001 0.002349940376514
14 England ENG d 82.19 2.1702 0.7440000000000001 0.0821 0.3209 0.145920263153043 0.038865213120627996 0.015290198966174999 0.004868954126675
15 Spain ESP b 86.75 2.6107 0.6378 0.0262 0.2539 0.06838715930346499 0.040606515203798 0.020353034665733998 0.009030408213924
16 France FRA e 87.49 2.6233 0.5744 0.7141 0.9328 0.57828508727293 0.31171926666927396 0.11977055679272199 0.055587227836562
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1985 0.7763 0.8649 0.9755 0.760546536316605 0.48608228940027604 0.202859697705238 0.113776983151938
18 Ghana GHA g 77.37 1.9046 0.9141 0.0591 0.3614 0.17485815384587197 0.051560633524279996 0.016855210414417 0.0033461921886709994
19 Greece GRE c 74.35 1.2919999999999998 0.6577 0.0099 0.1434 0.059014302936634004 0.016845826335243 0.004527639398778 0.0007199001610960001
20 Honduras HON e 68.35 1.5065 1.1953 0.005 0.078 0.012390509705680001 0.0037784719618529994 0.0009157130877989999 0.000106469745778
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2978 0.8898 0.0184 0.1794 0.045584248456959006 0.010965849244285 0.0016114046436479996 0.000293254480808
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.0362 0.8086 0.4454 0.749 0.33736401817868894 0.10595124223669 0.037527734831719 0.009106213849954001
23 Japan JPN c 73.12 2.0752 1.3316 0.0124 0.1096 0.042860436427202 0.011028552282257001 0.0027289296557350003 0.00039077951976699995
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6882 1.0828 0.1468 0.3895 0.09882913771641999 0.024103472241912005 0.00480594899429 0.000801634474881
25 Mexico MEX a 77.47 1.5187 0.6278 0.0273 0.5909 0.169196892653165 0.07402609997472 0.022677443114094 0.004168661627136
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8015 0.7438 0.6652 0.9563 0.535731345111259 0.350073421622477 0.179214034172493 0.065899756920421
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.02 1.6593 0.8921 0.0295 0.2678 0.083904750692901 0.024760701260113 0.004655255560814 0.001065778189849
28 Portugal POR g 80.92 2.1411 0.8218 0.0137 0.2948 0.161193211339171 0.054622505280723 0.023117439926474 0.005458770795641
29 Russia RUS h 78.95 1.6554 0.6267 0.2995 0.6371 0.230180715204233 0.075167889280263 0.021868159686884 0.0050967841988319995
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.31 2.0712 0.8939 0.2486 0.7913 0.266915493879208 0.111682531252151 0.036285730520959 0.008664371474583
31 Uruguay URU d 80.77 2.1806 0.8603 0.0578 0.2095 0.09214058053279599 0.023778799381224 0.008860428924798 0.002624259952617
32 USA USA g 77.53 2.0458 1.0036 0.0623 0.3683 0.18135761546133303 0.054251508787626995 0.018061088365865 0.0036490601738629995

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-205307" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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