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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140617-091836.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1178 1.1668 0.0593 0.1967 0.031353687201243 0.005870039959300999 0.0008047678183410001 9.1435486616e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8242 0.4467 0.8993 0.9815 0.6980470340555771 0.498667030807264 0.31869132374966996 0.136521219757885
3 Australia AUS b 69.13 1.6537 1.2677 0.0022 0.0214 0.00172897196142 0.000501773721131 9.987412192299999e-05 1.4657278829000001e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.09 2.1425 0.7344 0.4971 0.7777 0.35097574308073803 0.13906867494802203 0.054326875647939005 0.014457777268047
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.57 2.326 0.9764 0.0395 0.5472 0.230892581537814 0.08055419228593201 0.019546609771575 0.006506353517453
6 Brazil BRA a 91.6 3.3842 0.5578 0.968 0.9985 0.790926300946913 0.6630996662055461 0.510543832936704 0.40667088880421604
7 Chile CHI b 86.83 2.7238 0.7007 0.3112 0.7756 0.325087830993393 0.206102077025248 0.106600638710091 0.041478195862186006
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.15 2.2139 1.0064 0.2228 0.7895 0.39816058965572 0.127399567760031 0.045530351199531 0.010126890376656
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.12 1.3559999999999999 0.9670000000000001 0.0005 0.0302 0.0060120927082890005 0.002062342050852 0.000496950152126 6.0659787349e-05
10 Colombia COL c 87.63 2.3896 0.4174 0.7559 0.965 0.639744602628343 0.21864500331415698 0.10947325031231901 0.04933568477451099
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.45 1.5906 0.6828 0.4035 0.7233 0.286776477595971 0.076223110903431 0.024273972354694 0.004957149085188
12 Croatia CRO a 76.38 1.8123 0.9164 0.002 0.3851 0.10578805721857801 0.045607893683955 0.014275952810349 0.002419913264329
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.85 1.9826 0.7945 0.0335 0.2039 0.067107341534596 0.030311529037726 0.011377399276258 0.0025455469892059998
14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1664 0.7412 0.0849 0.3193 0.145483235394722 0.039248540269481005 0.015358393326494 0.0048290227315340006
15 Spain ESP b 86.77 2.6136 0.6381 0.0251 0.2464 0.065941828931493 0.039199643716856004 0.01918474493084 0.008625523022142999
16 France FRA e 86.93 2.5422 0.5791 0.6886 0.9197 0.5591111183888829 0.276724786480106 0.104860955933899 0.04657664479921799
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2869 0.6908 0.8802 0.9836 0.7946925294403221 0.54886610051546 0.248877532827742 0.15245874088623498
18 Ghana GHA g 76.4 1.849 0.9419 0.0053 0.1097 0.051151950034122 0.014663478379021003 0.005013448399902001 0.000881000671053
19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.2976 0.672 0.0105 0.1463 0.05960243661081599 0.016831430658611 0.00469046491155 0.000718671874963
20 Honduras HON e 68.2 1.5045 1.2049 0.0053 0.0707 0.012094370988995 0.003611506131393 0.000861687049998 9.6284954975e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1909 0.7921 0.0218 0.1891 0.050844034014584004 0.011268587924936001 0.0017509677285070001 0.000318298920843
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0385 0.8083 0.4526 0.7424 0.33623612856124996 0.106718448308856 0.039025928196964994 0.009230397542763
23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.073 1.3309 0.0108 0.0992 0.03884033350999 0.010075661430172 0.0026232291787660006 0.00036191547767000005
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6881 1.0845 0.1447 0.3885 0.09247288884401401 0.023780648532222 0.004909493965441001 0.0007914678952599999
25 Mexico MEX a 77.57 1.5338 0.6336 0.0295 0.5862 0.168034423532056 0.073581674092714 0.023667511892912 0.004251829159479001
26 Netherlands NED b 86.88 2.8083 0.7476 0.6615 0.9566 0.5364804937077721 0.350210907482806 0.18447061102512 0.066790555909356
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.89 1.5476 0.8186 0.0394 0.2822 0.091254160882886 0.024795285953703998 0.004900872763619 0.001079835664816
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0356 0.9034 0.01 0.2343 0.11926536208652601 0.038808141626959995 0.015007474741001002 0.003034035510272
29 Russia RUS h 78.86 1.6526 0.6319 0.2989 0.6371 0.21777411152353102 0.073742947078261 0.021873568191321 0.004949967947784
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.0756 0.8953 0.2726 0.8057 0.290649358596655 0.116159136047688 0.038147318926571 0.008989849527598
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.1937 0.8626 0.059 0.215 0.095156196043227 0.024492259376169 0.009205350663020001 0.0027349702257030003
32 USA USA g 78.43 2.0989 0.9785 0.1045 0.6724 0.34231372778942304 0.11310791429200999 0.039528646484813995 0.008094615025864

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140617-091836" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 51.53ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub