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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-175722.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0229 0.1528 0.021027220390058998 0.004370765264809 0.000576713049575 8.155812231399999e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9036 0.9828 0.7001387056179661 0.498182542514243 0.31593899890557003 0.14676302882394102
3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0031 0.000298875536712 7.4184948286e-05 1.2837946625e-05 2.312028276e-06
4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6521 0.8721 0.410505784126377 0.156824922013106 0.063683091738654 0.017693526680745
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.04 0.5605 0.23564959210037897 0.082652280270877 0.02256475885638 0.007609909688095
6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.921 0.995 0.7533145173731741 0.6130874859290479 0.45267670624040096 0.34630042703384006
7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.2664 0.776 0.322796454740158 0.20155149912042003 0.10267353744140599 0.043512901858137
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2266 0.7899 0.39773473301050605 0.127661647001768 0.04540381943502099 0.011161314997554
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0044 0.0129 0.002627043704899 0.0008435551646960002 0.000191164595593 3.1757934521e-05
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7524 0.9632 0.638209451165489 0.239628231371838 0.11941046964229599 0.055347528912563
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.4089 0.7217 0.28767652429872603 0.07846090667170098 0.024852880804847 0.005589829700293001
12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0162 0.1781 0.04850115088134999 0.020497731176444 0.006280986340508 0.0011803796548839997
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0358 0.2062 0.067444756323972 0.029648299873543 0.011024488071068999 0.002756171669223
14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0907 0.3224 0.148709405612397 0.043825585936929 0.017075895865959 0.005635600752755999
15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0037 0.2226 0.061579656635718995 0.035585433813723 0.017025559282278998 0.008243812601831
16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6927 0.9212 0.560748809249763 0.27645601233804495 0.113159985467084 0.051657637657079
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.881 0.9826 0.800623274479749 0.552710638765162 0.274523270945022 0.16876841491392003
18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0049 0.1032 0.046740032211346996 0.0135608189932 0.004602440395653 0.000904828543633
19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0104 0.144 0.058773528515287006 0.01636031312176 0.0045251606275539995 0.000775242098635
20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0058 0.0685 0.011711892565236 0.0034396374514170003 0.0008133143621420001 0.00010254550469
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0219 0.1885 0.05027862152975401 0.011008099527738997 0.0018968755724260002 0.000359656574617
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4406 0.7458 0.335996861835106 0.107469016416378 0.039077687987255 0.010188461646103
23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0106 0.1029 0.040150978526725 0.010070867675946999 0.002608302112807 0.00040400417455400007
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.1271 0.4091 0.092030359057277 0.024067022874219 0.005001613959495999 0.000902819017832
25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0584 0.814 0.24350616166640196 0.109374474647175 0.03643072220638299 0.007651192924114
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.7299 0.9983 0.567376139461621 0.369573974801907 0.194446213570591 0.07596418800896901
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0345 0.2682 0.087103324347998 0.023458026121861 0.00500806340576 0.0011692997016129998
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.009 0.2359 0.11686693931173599 0.038082292774974 0.014514558182523002 0.003282586035377
29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.1979 0.566 0.174947496476308 0.059470010573821 0.016570918213655 0.0041365671925279995
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2657 0.8041 0.286924298264958 0.114840186957911 0.038744140397878 0.009912132414606
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0598 0.2101 0.092748517035733 0.025935092201974996 0.009670998865268 0.003030836555616
32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1051 0.6783 0.33725889394708597 0.11122844368505001 0.039013825512317 0.008879526577138001

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-175722" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 83.694ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub