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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-210231.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, sixteen

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0257 0.1589 0.022702386541684 0.004654411100851 0.000615249506995 8.6032062043e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9056 0.9825 0.7002364079206121 0.49870439370889597 0.316513259792289 0.147011471034192
3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6425 0.8654 0.40699591471617697 0.155334334796855 0.06304291201956501 0.017536110533483
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0372 0.5618 0.236366269477618 0.082501376712806 0.022366996804070997 0.007599528714147
6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.9189 0.9948 0.7511436042237499 0.611675784011287 0.45171685299585296 0.345518260680466
7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3602 1.0 0.422043359476595 0.26435124585736397 0.135270634921715 0.056964850151098
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2286 0.7925 0.40018207706837294 0.128122556349303 0.045567543041717 0.011213923175862
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0029 0.0128 0.002568775869614 0.0008288345231539999 0.000194715096907 3.1246018133e-05
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7478 0.9593 0.634701273943408 0.238733407832995 0.11902014706743701 0.055087770028145994
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.417 0.7222 0.28939020543540506 0.07946423375722099 0.025166206724685003 0.005638433200245
12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0162 0.1786 0.048639311668872004 0.020540848988773997 0.0063198296834869995 0.0011880899657739999
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0315 0.2049 0.066795845049092 0.029972722614007005 0.011236474426163998 0.002787596899624
14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0812 0.323 0.146759007296898 0.042286962214316 0.016520124815555 0.005517341260483001
15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6927 0.921 0.561254358492376 0.276746127237731 0.113409073241858 0.05172950221276901
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8807 0.9822 0.8005941648449258 0.55259238107151 0.274448749136614 0.168769898475199
18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0037 0.1066 0.048058401512829 0.013544686984751001 0.004645779600271 0.0009118888140280001
19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0114 0.145 0.05907271964934099 0.016292587484352 0.004493626238058 0.0007718294089310001
20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.005 0.0676 0.011251319041891 0.00328199569265 0.000781182476961 9.859006271300001e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0219 0.1884 0.050166750568752 0.011046627124353 0.0018992586481960002 0.00035894885836199996
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4418 0.746 0.33709886436729 0.10751520131782301 0.038984898863786005 0.010190187644403999
23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0122 0.1032 0.04028967360510201 0.010183968188976999 0.002623826460628 0.000408387941588
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.132 0.4164 0.093993419395539 0.024567742512947997 0.005072215953375 0.0009181361771869998
25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.062 0.8138 0.243424628301799 0.109425023421283 0.036379305556845 0.007646374122124
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6398 1.0 0.5321803204593971 0.344559196820627 0.18013520161439198 0.071597149837647
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0353 0.2673 0.086333599069643 0.023413693342426004 0.005014544803781 0.001164456363665
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0095 0.2271 0.113196277257378 0.036798048284872 0.014033789688523 0.003172900329435
29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.1998 0.5593 0.172943597410611 0.058807472241284 0.016541230473767 0.004108230179172
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2708 0.8065 0.28759545038004103 0.11489908931993302 0.038626739465304004 0.009910766671599
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.06 0.2088 0.09250617863415099 0.026020149232513997 0.009743629572355998 0.0030409610823490005
32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1061 0.6841 0.341515838320794 0.11313489725410801 0.039616001308845995 0.009021138095131

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-210231" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 63.619ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub