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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140619-205931.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.3 1.1801 1.1672 0.0213 0.1603 0.023259867510441002 0.004890626088145 0.000608510435799 8.8817109972e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.89 2.8248 0.4457 0.9056 0.983 0.696636779825277 0.49545038636756 0.318155734617603 0.14848582129162102
3 Australia AUS b 70.15 1.7855 1.3089 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.88 2.1496 0.7576 0.6498 0.8731 0.415894590892218 0.16050269327792702 0.06585755702910599 0.018605682976931
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.62 2.3309 0.9766 0.0372 0.5481 0.231859482518841 0.08570004940324501 0.022680861763488 0.007760693291829
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1909 0.516 0.9225 0.9951 0.7513877598593679 0.6038103183643311 0.45887119905424295 0.35543778716982105
7 Chile CHI b 87.82 2.7509 0.6228 0.4007 1.0 0.446848998258289 0.293485048607978 0.15947567310467 0.07078604417230701
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.13 2.2127 1.0084 0.0092 0.7265 0.36934025136613796 0.135527026319554 0.048778857026552 0.011339222719110002
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4901 1.1177 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.7 2.3934 0.4145 0.9808 0.9981 0.668193809685106 0.21795339465413802 0.110584606176768 0.055986996118278
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5925 0.6815 0.3894 0.7749 0.301584976995415 0.08080127421685 0.025825715848492 0.005890605623651999
12 Croatia CRO a 79.64 2.0406 0.8511 0.0371 0.3855 0.125329680964369 0.062788579016585 0.022662942351756 0.005240743349471
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.95 1.9863 0.7908 0.0327 0.2016 0.06592180277765701 0.029565572764142 0.011294661077033002 0.002838386221885
14 England ENG d 82.23 2.1691 0.7432 0.0 0.0355 0.013537736328847002 0.0030635058969609996 0.001200715011785 0.000464220924024
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.478 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.9 2.5366 0.5805 0.6823 0.9229 0.557201436272552 0.28683956967184304 0.115747577356878 0.052970775247164
17 Germany GER g 89.42 3.2403 0.7437 0.8577 0.978 0.781034344269677 0.5234453929467371 0.246518107320227 0.14613101833606398
18 Ghana GHA g 76.29 1.8443 0.9469 0.0083 0.1084 0.048578652909531 0.013972141427757 0.004704918034147 0.0009391731053529999
19 Greece GRE c 74.26 1.2973 0.6702 0.0002 0.1774 0.072575018129067 0.020798925390397 0.005804906089509 0.0009884554299
20 Honduras HON e 68.18 1.5087 1.2107 0.0068 0.0684 0.011949630102993 0.003433701893827 0.000805387936128 0.000103719894922
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1909 0.7937 0.0214 0.1995 0.053909341012766995 0.01262328922587 0.002078665903066 0.00040161516657300005
22 Italy ITA d 80.15 2.0347 0.8101 0.465 0.7402 0.342444247798004 0.112290431748964 0.041130617094978 0.010593592214490001
23 Japan JPN c 73.09 2.068 1.3316 0.0098 0.098 0.038354933979705005 0.009562181014743999 0.002478086117013 0.00038892959906300004
24 South Korea KOR h 72.49 1.6878 1.0807 0.1231 0.4032 0.09512824383386399 0.025204664803249004 0.00506364192337 0.0009390918383730001
25 Mexico MEX a 78.41 1.4717 0.5341 0.0404 0.6194 0.18350838493107502 0.08572338318731701 0.028307859310284 0.005929776536101001
26 Netherlands NED b 86.15 2.7997 0.8136 0.5993 1.0 0.492925175986882 0.317548423382409 0.162041088449767 0.062184679510135996
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.548 0.8220000000000001 0.0358 0.2694 0.087164305433391 0.024961214954681 0.005197982707744 0.0012168427663960001
28 Portugal POR g 79.1 2.0823 0.9194 0.011 0.2343 0.11714709956197901 0.038643467569804 0.015176157890021002 0.003514412422333
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6132 0.6413 0.2058 0.5634 0.181672445854857 0.06199271650828799 0.017268635973236 0.004347688722124001
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.54 2.0858 0.8897 0.2782 0.8071 0.295357222056501 0.120656395498449 0.040653501436151 0.010676240327627
31 Uruguay URU d 80.9 2.1952 0.8632 0.1456 0.4494 0.19396902571769503 0.056647508199831 0.021824403762639003 0.00668829018455
32 USA USA g 78.46 2.1014 0.9798 0.123 0.6793 0.337284755167512 0.11211811759843301 0.03920142919753799 0.009060677729931998

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140619-205931" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 9.964ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub