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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140620-175706.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.25 1.1759 1.1674 0.0232 0.1543 0.022835907167855 0.00476904973308 0.000602637972346 8.7679587371e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.91 2.8255 0.4452 0.9061 0.9808 0.69659633088281 0.497148248736334 0.320315610539402 0.149828002006455
3 Australia AUS b 70.13 1.7862 1.3112 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1461 0.7596 0.6428 0.8682 0.41287535507201095 0.15862981312280403 0.06526115970912201 0.018441197075277003
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.331 0.9799 0.0353 0.5451 0.230277902130814 0.08466073728894001 0.022481683239052003 0.007695674154236
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1914 0.5169 0.9171 0.994 0.7515209828037309 0.604763552461688 0.45952712524834 0.35614262115729795
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7346 0.6173 0.4 1.0 0.44436071430237895 0.293034407765183 0.158846734523431 0.070287490757
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2615 1.0159 0.0108 0.7372 0.4006169234014779 0.149401721258041 0.05500548455523599 0.013142660705766
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4899 1.1181 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.5 2.4207 0.4508 0.9892 1.0 0.6538886038173339 0.21171215526762802 0.106617842780913 0.05379390891246799
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5984 0.6861 0.8777 1.0 0.45324521510871 0.14485268259300801 0.046959530031219006 0.009867884554179002
12 Croatia CRO a 79.63 2.0389 0.8511 0.0377 0.3894 0.127151931937598 0.064963246255238 0.023454511687896 0.005434334595609
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9872 0.7934 0.0365 0.2089 0.068355499565024 0.030453448411651002 0.011559482647284 0.00293541632814
14 England ENG d 81.52 2.1296 0.7722 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.4782 0.653 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.89 2.5361 0.5808 0.6808 0.917 0.5560645685915151 0.284882826031245 0.115400707298756 0.05286387326794099
17 Germany GER g 89.41 3.2374 0.7435 0.8664 0.9797 0.782070379378853 0.524242307058875 0.24707708328226605 0.14644758805849803
18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8448 0.9487 0.0074 0.105 0.047158915296495005 0.013596674956109 0.004613237309204001 0.0009203658808839999
19 Greece GRE c 74.23 1.183 0.5846 0.0 0.2233 0.097054073891253 0.027821489702482997 0.0077226467997649996 0.0013159748674330001
20 Honduras HON e 68.14 1.506 1.2117 0.006 0.0672 0.011635235553049999 0.0034137551627070003 0.0008286649792350001 0.000105957304965
21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1912 0.7941 0.023 0.1952 0.052593960205750995 0.012357571717040999 0.00208598523878 0.00040005950373
22 Italy ITA d 80.06 2.0297 0.813 0.0627 0.6084 0.219303080240191 0.04846544344107401 0.017122653411957 0.005486093908576999
23 Japan JPN c 73.26 1.9584 1.2372 0.0 0.0395 0.016644800542748 0.004520828153212 0.001187025245443 0.000182559298926
24 South Korea KOR h 72.53 1.6905 1.0807 0.1249 0.4103 0.09596297673232303 0.025390392562109 0.005196489898874001 0.0009646285409910001
25 Mexico MEX a 78.38 1.4687 0.5347 0.0452 0.6166 0.18295244729516197 0.087119179724082 0.028767746772281 0.006024091855846
26 Netherlands NED b 86.13 2.7973 0.8149 0.6 1.0 0.49401392366111607 0.32178839582544 0.16401886295576998 0.062846972493163
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.87 1.5464 0.8209 0.0356 0.2789 0.09008878084566198 0.025725508078951003 0.005368811319056 0.001262649390868
28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.0819 0.9218 0.0087 0.2234 0.111907770973041 0.036955895436088994 0.014610645608030002 0.003390986903728
29 Russia RUS h 78.34 1.6128 0.6409 0.2091 0.5672 0.18358201110368103 0.063003102207562 0.017739585016368 0.004456106612665999
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.55 2.0841 0.8886 0.2767 0.8069 0.29438772222527 0.12105681543262599 0.04112396530264 0.010802845164376998
31 Uruguay URU d 81.42 2.231 0.8484 0.0596 0.3916 0.159247302998357 0.041556897552906 0.016157161354577 0.005560221524622
32 USA USA g 78.44 2.1002 0.9802 0.1175 0.6919 0.3436066842758089 0.113713854063873 0.040346925272739 0.009312155588988

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140620-175706" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 99.046ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub