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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140621-175630.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.22 1.1757 1.1682 0.0207 0.1512 0.022330939908543998 0.003934938083412 0.000509239903263 7.1529029151e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.92 2.8288 0.4448 0.9558 1.0 0.7460102225966039 0.536572529196136 0.348392052995195 0.161068422859964
3 Australia AUS b 70.33 1.7888 1.2996 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1451 0.7583 0.6377 0.8706 0.41010108424326003 0.152521130352073 0.062860574044602 0.017552453575596
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.3324 0.9795 0.0228 0.5751 0.195514231510392 0.071487688518534 0.01870327811861 0.0064849589217440004
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1874 0.5156 0.9156 0.9928 0.7497289652421608 0.6031009476606 0.44990763740463896 0.346946571135344
7 Chile CHI b 87.79 2.7379 0.6167 0.4056 1.0 0.45216210085961894 0.297526489417052 0.158700505345786 0.069536999579368
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2617 1.0151 0.0137 0.7372 0.39183381716146 0.14613621068135502 0.053209638241745 0.012551410286821002
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.4 1.4905 1.12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.51 2.4223 0.4507 0.9863 1.0 0.658395616461208 0.214020198631797 0.10352483924439099 0.051878137484141
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.55 1.5911 0.6107 0.884 1.0 0.46858573746934706 0.15581211113968801 0.052003823017005 0.0113566570064
12 Croatia CRO a 79.53 2.0276 0.8497 0.0374 0.3934 0.127119507970965 0.064005852541323 0.022659862298681 0.005165588300383999
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.0 1.989 0.789 0.0031 0.368 0.101937647713106 0.04939131063848599 0.020500771607297 0.004890066632784
14 England ENG d 81.43 2.1314 0.7789 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.73 2.4815 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 87.82 2.7485 0.62 0.9968 1.0 0.702985601540641 0.364408875261879 0.141276003919737 0.074621374919171
17 Germany GER g 89.38 3.237 0.745 0.8621 0.9804 0.7808130677777259 0.483319516512021 0.22898487486295604 0.13439542718371303
18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8449 0.9481 0.0063 0.1041 0.046905279222631 0.013076771862061 0.004494135324401 0.0008777760118010001
19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.1796 0.5825 0.0 0.2179 0.09218849019091198 0.026039862044215004 0.007164844414216999 0.0012069124926160002
20 Honduras HON e 68.33 1.5117 1.2037 0.0 0.0211 0.0029751368625480002 0.0009301719059710001 0.00024264658383 2.9593309301e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.81 1.1916 0.7949 0.0 0.158 0.030169926064176 0.006567965975279 0.0009120930855080001 0.000200133596448
22 Italy ITA d 79.26 1.9422 0.8095 0.0579 0.5873 0.20294212758633398 0.042533245832515 0.013690073366448 0.004167541391797
23 Japan JPN c 73.35 1.9701 1.2392 0.0 0.0449 0.018438957802457002 0.004870428483868 0.001270164054703 0.00019441688610499997
24 South Korea KOR h 72.52 1.6902 1.0808 0.1338 0.4094 0.096965208095608 0.022860249952305 0.0048935767523420005 0.0008712431431460001
25 Mexico MEX a 78.45 1.4757 0.534 0.047 0.6138 0.18205004254182502 0.085905462795437 0.028139694053627998 0.0058499656513
26 Netherlands NED b 86.18 2.7976 0.8089 0.5944 1.0 0.48893938338550297 0.316574598506248 0.15934915714414902 0.061051780531527
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.5469 0.8212 0.0214 0.2669 0.06740797989739 0.019120064931071 0.003908233816256 0.0009239151621939999
28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.082 0.9213 0.0106 0.2294 0.11465896365722197 0.037214961630846 0.014726196306370001 0.003371325752347
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6129 0.6409 0.2078 0.5688 0.18481386829793803 0.057760492754314004 0.016517793350981 0.004062066335886
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.27 2.1691 1.0401 0.0001 0.6109 0.152999253815051 0.07104864752838799 0.027919382448285 0.006075092081885
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2386 0.8471 0.0581 0.4127 0.167615253328232 0.043474592265867 0.016296544351240002 0.005605313746916
32 USA USA g 78.54 2.1097 0.9792 0.121 0.6861 0.343411588797146 0.109784684897249 0.039242363943736 0.008993326992148

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140621-175630" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 41.667ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub