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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140622-235721.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0371 0.4605 0.06736675099453299 0.012486139961757 0.0014877055389839998 0.000230418601247
2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8946 1.0 0.722759318138993 0.49890925024868 0.31385176239496504 0.14422408347594698
3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.9629 1.0 0.516714413251126 0.20116703803936198 0.089710835061231 0.024110177563804
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1860000000000004 0.5158 0.9199 0.995 0.7512370877828429 0.604161243630245 0.45478528099709103 0.35508346124309004
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4035 1.0 0.448225822709807 0.29474748819449204 0.161135140223403 0.07144555045190201
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.0132 0.7494 0.398683271972443 0.148708687680844 0.05646335695471 0.013467524017466998
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.9868 1.0 0.657785949589661 0.21287510598478698 0.10464576439145802 0.05360363697890401
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.882 1.0 0.467247707722724 0.155415624236794 0.05399231936858401 0.011904578784718001
12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.0369 0.3909 0.126275030265483 0.063607188082253 0.023390909599113 0.005371440094089
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.7909999999999999 0.004 0.3817 0.116818702034929 0.054680919287623996 0.022638974029945 0.005452737062725
14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9958 0.9999 0.723170665338056 0.388481442603796 0.150376355812594 0.080984726890582
17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.857 0.9971 0.800094865950399 0.479228604266649 0.21824040728640198 0.125055075404015
18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.9179999999999999 0.0 0.1909 0.081848861745763 0.025937851212773998 0.009726001148096 0.0020014917809200003
19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2069 0.08753979619936299 0.024876364478044997 0.0071128991372149996 0.001205453257524
20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0194 0.003377192781918 0.001004634876889 0.000263510059423 3.2393988118e-05
21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1279 0.024911380942276 0.005929007802883 0.0008328229613289999 0.000191279886615
22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0587 0.585 0.202336845132142 0.042522904242662 0.014087461376772 0.004371558998233
23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0437 0.017963847062391996 0.00489668294841 0.001339939154951 0.00020604838238199997
24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.0 0.0208 0.003936992979788 0.001003424561725 0.000143025658397 3.5220462707e-05
25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0432 0.6141 0.18226815091499202 0.085992613283232 0.029353299090985 0.006157307949567
26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5965 1.0 0.49199390832679496 0.318653788245909 0.16535333811206698 0.063890280501265
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1054 0.8721 0.239723581946563 0.075236436723311 0.016941970219079 0.004196652861536
28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.9259999999999999 0.0 0.0543 0.024928263672772004 0.008613348553097 0.003509027536227 0.000793124844545
29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.0 0.5187 0.138887600472553 0.046181961609447 0.009441361020152 0.003008947454078
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0002 0.599 0.169239158817287 0.075619400704539 0.029829137234777002 0.006538869634991999
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.0593 0.415 0.168442582321392 0.043542308992254995 0.01672228970847 0.005905241722939999
32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.143 0.7577 0.366222250933069 0.125520539547468 0.044625105923579 0.010532717706092

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-235721" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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