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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140623-095120.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 74.28 2.0432 1.2319 0.0335 0.6334 0.14834806396963302 0.04290238376085 0.007972936437307 0.00207792332795
2 Argentina ARG f 89.64 2.7388 0.425 0.8829 1.0 0.721087704312076 0.48641528664798706 0.304373759097436 0.14031704947633802
3 Australia AUS b 70.26 1.7863 1.3032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 83.29 2.1563 0.6524 0.9665 1.0 0.538530343553573 0.225353374427522 0.106260213498026 0.031120995660091
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.34 2.1914 0.9794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Brazil BRA a 91.1 3.1656 0.5023 0.915 0.9933 0.7494356284360899 0.603414601203599 0.454517537582613 0.35461416186280104
7 Chile CHI b 87.76 2.7339 0.6197 0.4068 1.0 0.449404283589478 0.295310748170138 0.16098799471125 0.071493685001503
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.68 2.2768 1.0128 0.0145 0.7646 0.41012409380608605 0.154156752843387 0.05866285367585201 0.014219710685453
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.34 1.4876 1.1228 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.41 2.4118 0.4555 0.9855 1.0 0.6560311091475429 0.21253836144981197 0.10439801044616699 0.05315620294669499
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.47 1.5821 0.6114 0.8824 1.0 0.4651364257806121 0.15371516214206 0.052891938851778 0.011693081571756001
12 Croatia CRO a 79.81 2.0425 0.8417 0.0361 0.3965 0.130326567887364 0.066348346474538 0.024635058039566005 0.00579081816912
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9854 0.7933 0.0033 0.3733 0.115602394661544 0.052084133615795995 0.021551433568752 0.005191058215001
14 England ENG d 81.42 2.1295 0.7809 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4815 0.6539 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 87.8 2.7457 0.6228 0.9963 0.9999 0.719349818798109 0.3881716478337371 0.15085851746692902 0.08110139507552701
17 Germany GER g 88.74 3.1773 0.7828 0.8608 0.9972 0.777233798756804 0.466123693282209 0.21281640577052202 0.12228053372496199
18 Ghana GHA g 78.98 1.9887 0.8644 0.0 0.1973 0.083629623705919 0.028831367273565 0.011513835224030001 0.0025951360702550002
19 Greece GRE c 72.85 1.1093 0.6108 0.0 0.1949 0.07940901552174001 0.021257906674536 0.005711902232201999 0.000917087421255
20 Honduras HON e 68.27 1.5098 1.2066 0.0 0.018 0.0030799637492740003 0.0008735275580810001 0.000227828723478 2.8091542986999997e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.87 1.1287 0.742 0.0 0.1285 0.024719240001898 0.005784676095754 0.000815509015843 0.00018367405929799999
22 Italy ITA d 79.21 1.9401 0.8138 0.0579 0.5773 0.20057143556478896 0.042205433726764 0.013934150289947 0.004333058840642
23 Japan JPN c 73.34 1.972 1.2427 0.0 0.0405 0.016725314792798002 0.00450011047164 0.001212478914693 0.00018806222926099998
24 South Korea KOR h 64.44 1.6461 1.5618 0.0 0.006 0.0006831506711499999 0.00011545807994499999 1.0965671804e-05 1.7105246740000001e-06
25 Mexico MEX a 78.39 1.4714 0.5366 0.0489 0.6102 0.180648929965299 0.084673032244616 0.028569266418134 0.006011417020051999
26 Netherlands NED b 86.2 2.7928 0.8062 0.5932 1.0 0.49018459012176796 0.31701297899888203 0.163971380242715 0.063636493773802
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.09 1.5318 0.732 0.1171 0.8715 0.24281702035167602 0.076171914160901 0.017380514913231997 0.004303926294466
28 Portugal POR g 78.88 2.0901 0.9426 0.0 0.0489 0.021030219118471 0.007298485210643001 0.0029378889484079997 0.0006695989643890001
29 Russia RUS h 76.91 1.4624 0.6276 0.0 0.3606 0.088940468226896 0.027621797265299 0.005279129401505999 0.001574245205616
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.16 2.1622 1.0454 0.0004 0.6088 0.17334385812564404 0.073960190819368 0.028863717860578997 0.0063349278411430005
31 Uruguay URU d 81.47 2.2401 0.8513 0.0597 0.4227 0.172002605386305 0.044866565600066 0.017237934524470002 0.006066984774015
32 USA USA g 78.74 2.1609 1.0022 0.1392 0.7566 0.341604331997718 0.11829206396842999 0.042406838472739 0.010098969720947

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140623-095120" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 65.972ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub