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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140626-095930.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 74.34 2.0441 1.2336 0.0322 0.634 0.150295856941254 0.044971512716055 0.007477503971044001 0.001927710151786
2 Argentina ARG f 90.14 2.9531 0.4932 1.0 1.0 0.7499991300017349 0.53218255418815 0.36403042864341706 0.16835308443892003
3 Australia AUS b 67.47 1.685 1.406 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 83.12 2.1376 0.6547 0.9678 1.0 0.531061138358501 0.19337333053415698 0.09331012844853599 0.026153841748528996
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.46 2.2777 0.9573 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Brazil BRA a 91.24 3.2325 0.5205 1.0 1.0 0.7780854923348671 0.612296527190661 0.47087773969467295 0.362102593679645
7 Chile CHI b 86.58 2.5767 0.637 0.0 1.0 0.221914507665133 0.115003237986451 0.056925285211124 0.028432478378577004
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.08 2.2328 1.1047 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.13 1.4486 1.1702 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 88.17 2.5118 0.4427 1.0 1.0 0.633888546441141 0.19754753238636702 0.10390841812241802 0.055070056744092995
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.46 1.4994 0.5545 1.0 1.0 0.563656080705206 0.19517910328294102 0.060730069237579 0.012699562455976999
12 Croatia CRO a 77.94 2.0413 0.9788 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.22 1.8419 0.6747 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.15 2.0557 0.7531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 86.28 2.5038 0.6197 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 87.68 2.6496 0.5759 1.0 1.0 0.7241824165320792 0.388537671145838 0.137464744788375 0.072021756523183
17 Germany GER g 88.61 3.1728 0.7929999999999999 0.8477 0.9967 0.7737928941175891 0.468529253364974 0.20166860247984902 0.11284904775073301
18 Ghana GHA g 79.01 1.9888 0.8654 0.0 0.1974 0.08453215992636298 0.024785654612262998 0.010295943164596002 0.002244564343556
19 Greece GRE c 74.48 1.1804 0.5712 0.0 1.0 0.43634391929478794 0.126280336263112 0.032543106232251 0.0054594852615229995
20 Honduras HON e 65.81 1.4244 1.2921 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 69.34 1.1127 0.8220000000000001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 78.52 1.818 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 72.54 2.0196 1.3385 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.88 1.6581 1.5493 0.0 0.0071 0.0008679866428200001 0.00016066098672799998 1.3214246230000002e-05 2.1144584680000004e-06
25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.6198 0.5329 0.0 1.0 0.309494772961891 0.170683083147933 0.056696522818136995 0.012807157446668
26 Netherlands NED b 87.39 2.8089999999999997 0.7022 1.0 1.0 0.6905052270382901 0.507857477306055 0.262092764809487 0.10032070376049301
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.2 1.6936 0.7807 0.0 1.0 0.275817583468004 0.087272425928185 0.015535198872263001 0.004723829602566
28 Portugal POR g 79.15 2.1091 0.9392 0.0 0.0476 0.02066825309152 0.006197498782917 0.0026241164680529997 0.00058500321415
29 Russia RUS h 76.98 1.464 0.6271 0.0 0.3589 0.090931707140327 0.029749181024459 0.005115936691736 0.001500240256605
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.87 2.2727 0.9986 0.0 1.0 0.250000869998355 0.11470103800908901 0.05024867278936401 0.011812426015298002
31 Uruguay URU d 82.11 2.1995 0.7766 0.0 1.0 0.366111453558818 0.075152702436533 0.029555537683379998 0.011790388468188001
32 USA USA g 78.89 2.1631 0.9962 0.1523 0.7583 0.347850003781503 0.109539218707145 0.038886065627388 0.009143955301053

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140626-095930" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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