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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140626-221022.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 74.34 2.0441 1.2336 0 1 0.195027731332234 0.05953156901615401 0.009146420343290001 0.002552771212261
2 Argentina ARG f 90.14 2.9531 0.4932 1 1 0.749999130001648 0.546628140473052 0.37391168635458094 0.172203411976447
3 Australia AUS b 67.47 1.685 1.406 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 83.12 2.1376 0.6547 1 1 0.572955786635508 0.207584587024698 0.10147219101755099 0.028073888196040002
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.46 2.2777 0.9573 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Brazil BRA a 91.24 3.2325 0.5205 1 1 0.778085492334864 0.612296527190621 0.46429326028133705 0.358560610358349
7 Chile CHI b 86.58 2.5767 0.637 0 1 0.221914507665136 0.11500323798642999 0.055085009152803996 0.027808007859317994
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.08 2.2328 1.1047 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.13 1.4486 1.1702 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 88.17 2.5118 0.4427 1 1 0.633888546441227 0.197547532386406 0.100824096574599 0.053955561964884
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.46 1.4994 0.5545 1 1 0.563656080705273 0.195179103282917 0.06209975776623599 0.012832043261593
12 Croatia CRO a 77.94 2.0413 0.9788 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.22 1.8419 0.6747 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.15 2.0557 0.7531 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 86.28 2.5038 0.6197 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 87.68 2.6496 0.5759 1 1 0.724182416531987 0.36526157778664703 0.129229655964528 0.06848304188826401
17 Germany GER g 88.61 3.1728 0.7929999999999999 1 1 0.804972268667766 0.496424870987185 0.199049879308418 0.11633162293747801
18 Ghana GHA g 79.01 1.9888 0.8654 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 Greece GRE c 74.48 1.1804 0.5712 0 1 0.43634391929472705 0.126280336263122 0.033364651992982004 0.005518892419119
20 Honduras HON e 65.81 1.4244 1.2921 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 69.34 1.1127 0.8220000000000001 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 78.52 1.818 0.7794 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 72.54 2.0196 1.3385 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.88 1.6581 1.5493 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.6198 0.5329 0 1 0.309494772961865 0.17068308314795003 0.057920503856012 0.012938271070806003
26 Netherlands NED b 87.39 2.8089999999999997 0.7022 1 1 0.6905052270381351 0.507857477306011 0.26596644540274805 0.101161042878836
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.2 1.6936 0.7807 0 1 0.275817583468013 0.078781982210013 0.014023831103201 0.004356039601945
28 Portugal POR g 79.15 2.1091 0.9392 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 Russia RUS h 76.98 1.464 0.6271 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.87 2.2727 0.9986 0 1 0.250000869998352 0.11965030231543301 0.052416865571181 0.012204448033738997
31 Uruguay URU d 82.11 2.1995 0.7766 0 1 0.36611145355877295 0.075152702436543 0.028347847271824 0.011466309822767999
32 USA USA g 78.89 2.1631 0.9962 0 1 0.427044213364492 0.126136970186816 0.052847898038708 0.011554036518152998

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140626-221022" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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