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2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-matches-20150613-175552.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

36 rows sorted by team1_win

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2, team1_win, team2_win, tie

Link rowid date group team1 team2 team1_win ▼ team2_win tie
2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0
5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.0 0.0 1.0
10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 1.0
11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.0 0.0 1.0
13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.0 0.0 1.0
15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.0 1.0 0.0
16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.0 0.0 1.0
19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.0 0.0 1.0
21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.0 1.0 0.0
29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00359532 0.9565011 0.03990358
25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.0040038 0.95176396 0.04423224
35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02937191 0.86467158 0.10595651
26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05376102 0.81214405 0.13409493
31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.08402608 0.75568777 0.16028615
33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.11135664 0.70987222 0.17877113
27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20885898 0.57018797 0.22095305
32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29687584 0.46433246 0.2387917
36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37869813 0.37773655 0.24356532
28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45529279 0.30498446 0.23972274
30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.46185277 0.2990905 0.23905673
24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62160915 0.17052918 0.20786166
34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.6413394 0.15657342 0.20208718
1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0.0
4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0.0
6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.0 0.0 0.0
8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.0 0.0 0.0
9 2015-06-09 F France England 1.0 0.0 0.0
12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.0 0.0 0.0
14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.0 0.0 0.0
17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.0 0.0 0.0
18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.0 0.0 0.0
22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 1.0 0.0 0.0
23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 1.0 0.0 0.0

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150613-175552" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 21.078ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub