FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by cup

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup ▼ win
3 Australia AUS b 69.45 1.6395 1.2349 0.0151 0.0762 0.009646462233817 0.002942524012096 0.000670655788628 9.3109051375e-05
1 Algeria ALG h 63.43 1.1208 1.1636 0.0631 0.2032 0.03851712280305 0.007996157433279 0.001020556850644 0.000126121865295
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2966 0.8879 0.0339 0.1958 0.05913824518343 0.015941164411905 0.002499168356307 0.000441877591171
20 Honduras HON e 69.62 1.5622 1.1624 0.055 0.1984 0.047903360896607 0.014064631295591 0.002989010152518 0.000414407016756
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4798 0.9904 0.0079 0.2272 0.050187385575924 0.01698308960148 0.0043800391888 0.000585434861474
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3227 0.6993 0.0945 0.2622 0.100049602883884 0.018857900330671 0.005468305054972 0.001068778788604
24 South Korea KOR h 72.38 1.6901 1.0877 0.1484 0.3948 0.103997024167983 0.029226444640991 0.00552887738162 0.000958832531394
23 Japan JPN c 73.5 2.1313 1.3487 0.1069 0.3 0.106262132387176 0.02310822225633 0.006379715262849 0.001025400304521
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6677 0.8861 0.0712 0.3174 0.11734072473834 0.038951318733236 0.008085589120883 0.001768245703567
19 Greece GRE c 76.78 1.3357 0.5395 0.1458 0.3919 0.156767526184398 0.039476103888973 0.012603960830937 0.002504080622099
12 Croatia CRO a 75.72 1.7517 0.9161 0.0188 0.3808 0.102780192060054 0.041272006247888 0.012855375488164 0.00217049070814
25 Mexico MEX a 76.95 1.5534 0.6888 0.0233 0.398 0.113042305295909 0.046766312917696 0.015304940195237 0.00273507086292
18 Ghana GHA g 77.23 1.9076 0.9275 0.0814 0.3161 0.155059907343112 0.05265742656114 0.015753947014718 0.003224608429343
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.047 1.0139 0.0885 0.3228 0.160588140942895 0.05572007206556 0.016831621472528 0.003517041148902
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.05 1.9844 0.9249 0.1686 0.4459 0.161334829335447 0.064760112460499 0.018915572842927 0.004287774988087
22 Italy ITA d 79.49 1.9814 0.8195 0.2038 0.4577 0.217790424141203 0.056716503091826 0.021080310411438 0.005310448215507
29 Russia RUS h 79.03 1.6564 0.6236 0.3104 0.6332 0.23686787656471 0.086606876112849 0.024586170958073 0.005797379778698
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.9 2.2467 1.048 0.2317 0.5287 0.24374784325009 0.067887090450013 0.025095588667112 0.006043722947174
26 Netherlands NED b 82.49 2.3128 0.817 0.1543 0.4284 0.139295109962927 0.073126049369133 0.031512227702375 0.009363735915568
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.31 2.3113 0.9861 0.1599 0.5589 0.261950024181117 0.112097842297838 0.031610913342473 0.008963820648495
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.65 2.0299 0.7683 0.2364 0.5583 0.230000434592088 0.101267804170091 0.032383162168102 0.008657282801053
28 Portugal POR g 81.02 2.1409 0.8161 0.1502 0.4805 0.269608935686045 0.110292472220377 0.038370712452957 0.010010823367156
14 England ENG d 83.22 2.2079 0.6889 0.3474 0.6318 0.350894745784927 0.119919689750849 0.052928232205708 0.016036478113868
4 Belgium BEL h 81.97 2.1373 0.741 0.4781 0.7688 0.351536423472173 0.148459308004488 0.054136397737394 0.014903717511312
31 Uruguay URU d 83.35 2.2396 0.6998 0.3543 0.6483 0.366725218543659 0.128877408169174 0.057833786301493 0.017892458359948
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1813 0.4528 0.5156 0.7794 0.457762506824671 0.149779427964238 0.073364418039085 0.028029927914408
16 France FRA e 86.12 2.4851 0.619 0.54 0.7974 0.452428491629849 0.245063184438084 0.090112508873652 0.037191840395955
7 Chile CHI b 86.72 2.7113 0.7043 0.3392 0.6951 0.324846121913627 0.205733455034635 0.11033711304849 0.041898695776314
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6879 0.4468 0.4914 0.8003 0.455723538506813 0.310964619818756 0.182879904720425 0.076761496863487
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1937 0.7755 0.6799 0.8806 0.683824569020036 0.448736055292883 0.196900878690128 0.106981061567489
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8541 0.4494 0.735 0.9279 0.669903889443086 0.468159129861153 0.281757750867221 0.127798660739543
6 Brazil BRA a 91.83 3.3686 0.5175 0.95 0.994 0.804478884450903 0.697589597096247 0.565822588812143 0.453437174610376

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140611-132709" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);