FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by semi

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi ▼ cup win
3 Australia AUS b 69.45 1.6393 1.2349 0.0155 0.076 0.009538369967092 0.002844896729806 0.000663225155994 9.0596879322e-05
1 Algeria ALG h 63.42 1.1206 1.1638 0.0579 0.2011 0.037567268553394 0.007756380798401 0.000959503766594 0.000120317254567
20 Honduras HON e 69.62 1.5622 1.1623 0.0553 0.1932 0.047280840451575 0.013717176508974 0.002879587640659 0.000399733147769
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2969 0.888 0.0344 0.1849 0.056677011167264 0.015183289085478 0.002354750894298 0.000418528518446
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.48 0.9905 0.0058 0.237 0.05147650948161 0.017503634539335 0.004542840622618 0.000600645104348
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.08 1.3227 0.6992 0.0979 0.2666 0.102241671910796 0.018964871940767 0.005512915515007 0.001077285339286
23 Japan JPN c 73.5 2.1306 1.3483 0.0985 0.2961 0.104757901451542 0.023308284843908 0.006475493477489 0.001022973403556
24 South Korea KOR h 72.39 1.6901 1.0873 0.1497 0.3921 0.104148491685371 0.029358319299354 0.005583872149211 0.00095821036011
19 Greece GRE c 76.78 1.3359 0.5396 0.1391 0.3836 0.153884300377796 0.039278679432959 0.012485031568427 0.002465939499161
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8861 0.0723 0.3199 0.1187908953755 0.039477263074761 0.008040182019807 0.001774741738238
12 Croatia CRO a 75.72 1.7517 0.9161 0.002 0.375 0.10207926645806 0.04097949506235 0.012765677860313 0.002138979893167
25 Mexico MEX a 76.95 1.5531 0.6888 0.0168 0.3896 0.11062338178946 0.045816693072078 0.015022406707069 0.002663005963013
18 Ghana GHA g 77.23 1.9078 0.9277 0.0807 0.3056 0.149683249979171 0.051101205342967 0.015282633222232 0.003107625982246
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0472 1.0139 0.0879 0.3246 0.161211874265711 0.05599499760416 0.017011269824257 0.003532284317001
22 Italy ITA d 79.54 1.987 0.8204 0.2089 0.4568 0.216716387412079 0.057237511782856 0.021307083392161 0.00533579969606
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.05 1.9845 0.9248 0.1689 0.4468 0.161116168971311 0.06476707686919 0.018907790164056 0.00427738354359
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.9 2.2467 1.0481 0.2385 0.5335 0.246403469198843 0.067737944444969 0.025138904365672 0.00605166358146
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3132 0.817 0.1581 0.4286 0.138179189194129 0.072794612700786 0.031487070354294 0.009296347291588
29 Russia RUS h 79.02 1.6563 0.6237 0.3058 0.6335 0.235097662849149 0.086351606705024 0.024239253585253 0.005744998753309
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.65 2.0297 0.7682 0.2496 0.5633 0.233767884864175 0.103205044237213 0.032582328322907 0.008762963308095
28 Portugal POR g 81.02 2.1406 0.8163 0.1523 0.4865 0.272619582410834 0.111902153228156 0.039074148764982 0.010115954276987
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.31 2.3112 0.9862 0.1677 0.5722 0.266818819053295 0.114646832665834 0.032489479871936 0.00915218882601
14 England ENG d 83.22 2.2077 0.689 0.3396 0.622 0.345972511472356 0.118536718919047 0.052358695902105 0.015803367393983
31 Uruguay URU d 83.35 2.2397 0.6997 0.3536 0.6546 0.368499136466858 0.12885706944395 0.057956627195031 0.017890918207775
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1811 0.4528 0.5239 0.7868 0.461524621709741 0.149453213017821 0.073247066531248 0.028042879206645
4 Belgium BEL h 81.97 2.1378 0.7411 0.4866 0.7733 0.353985780328005 0.149689095713518 0.055044104250728 0.015018981414849
7 Chile CHI b 86.72 2.7115 0.7043 0.3442 0.6992 0.327277617464467 0.20765703167847 0.111372557413545 0.042170149866341
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4857 0.6189 0.5262 0.7967 0.449936502343807 0.243437749977605 0.090282174949823 0.036948223501711
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6879 0.4467 0.4822 0.7962 0.452643953985591 0.308585395836482 0.181589425916227 0.076067513027415
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.1935 0.7751 0.6791 0.8833 0.685686089928329 0.449372751719816 0.195385935426115 0.1068039277453
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4494 0.7256 0.923 0.665611877773039 0.464039057169555 0.279712954910486 0.126466524058758
6 Brazil BRA a 91.83 3.3717 0.5197 0.9754 0.9984 0.808181711659666 0.700443946554399 0.568245008259453 0.455679348899893

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140612-220228" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);