2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140613-180212.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by sixteen

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen ▼ quarter semi cup win
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0005 0.0383 0.008279153484669 0.0028204735804970003 0.00072650664474 9.861603248299999e-05
3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.6380000000000001 1.232 0.0176 0.0813 0.009963897037146 0.00298364093576 0.0006704012095499999 9.5466916224e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0333 0.1933 0.058800177658687 0.015630900951723998 0.0024146587470949997 0.00043832123617800004
20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.064 0.1971 0.048783196464964006 0.014124011741483998 0.0028842179138090004 0.0004133643738530001
1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0593 0.1973 0.037031884872746 0.007710506904984 0.000978961263767 0.00012219409971299999
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0958 0.2646 0.10104009411972802 0.018743684410718997 0.00549209073523 0.0010831429853769999
23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1034 0.2937 0.104561618469806 0.022925782183697997 0.006365140741344 0.0010255583905950001
18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.9080000000000001 0.9282 0.081 0.3145 0.15290209449973402 0.05196180722051099 0.01564306448544 0.00321889697574
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0681 0.3172 0.11729698464177199 0.039439539676187005 0.007997934268077 0.0017891683738900002
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.093 0.3302 0.163758037173703 0.056850966702172004 0.017268852593049 0.003638371303529
12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0019 0.3722 0.103607930809959 0.04229464159168799 0.013482186680815002 0.0023380966995020006
19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1471 0.3876 0.155104058949385 0.038910451578015995 0.012403492207238001 0.0024958695626479998
24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.147 0.3907 0.10465969306313198 0.029329702387714 0.005587241322035 0.0009736551420810001
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1705 0.4403 0.160055504585419 0.064458009896088 0.018781307131423 0.004327699117623
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.1628 0.442 0.140779361295065 0.074321105377761 0.032047396838598 0.009594022874936
22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.2047 0.4639 0.220939815438024 0.057636464792535994 0.021356212051543998 0.005439331550374001
28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.1573 0.4794 0.269422564973779 0.110335464902119 0.038130940734964994 0.010050732205902
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.2389 0.5426 0.250231056562453 0.069981653595991 0.025863338962372997 0.006272653112445
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.16 0.5643 0.264783490061127 0.11313495114829801 0.032140183180042005 0.00916690803052
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2374 0.5649 0.23169676266205702 0.102545136169625 0.033008883261278 0.008860670383127999
25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.0263 0.591 0.16869454226754996 0.06974375624775299 0.022581427305191002 0.004054581610644
14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.6890000000000001 0.3406 0.6283 0.348098619736154 0.11932127505911 0.052548030705685 0.015998384714489
29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.2968 0.6312 0.23427821529736603 0.086035327840425 0.024048501541522996 0.005789838268743
31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3589 0.6432 0.36380517648741 0.12899637952906598 0.057848752132032 0.017970403062199
7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.3403 0.6906 0.320185975903838 0.202313388419788 0.10861622434002198 0.041468390730422994
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5106 0.7761 0.456219560237007 0.149388314631632 0.07300735623557 0.028073586699386
4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.4969 0.7808 0.3588774122599871 0.15175492712645097 0.056075873492792 0.015482578417722001
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.4793 0.7861 0.4418167982395971 0.30165609619753997 0.17700540664811498 0.074872288374719
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.5281 0.7977 0.451933336780933 0.244662994075212 0.091031922602339 0.037620425376888
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.6687 0.8759 0.679070097859563 0.445952015124676 0.19664037826384198 0.1074437416918
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7386 0.9252 0.6666505471450022 0.466073738132324 0.282462112003233 0.12854984842049197
6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.5589999999999999 0.9713 0.9985 0.806672340962142 0.6979628918684498 0.564891003757246 0.45123319326575

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140613-180212" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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