2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140613-180212.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_defense

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense ▼ win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.4793 0.7861 0.4418167982395971 0.30165609619753997 0.17700540664811498 0.074872288374719
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7386 0.9252 0.6666505471450022 0.466073738132324 0.282462112003233 0.12854984842049197
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5106 0.7761 0.456219560237007 0.149388314631632 0.07300735623557 0.028073586699386
19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1471 0.3876 0.155104058949385 0.038910451578015995 0.012403492207238001 0.0024958695626479998
6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.5589999999999999 0.9713 0.9985 0.806672340962142 0.6979628918684498 0.564891003757246 0.45123319326575
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.5281 0.7977 0.451933336780933 0.244662994075212 0.091031922602339 0.037620425376888
29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.2968 0.6312 0.23427821529736603 0.086035327840425 0.024048501541522996 0.005789838268743
14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.6890000000000001 0.3406 0.6283 0.348098619736154 0.11932127505911 0.052548030705685 0.015998384714489
25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.0263 0.591 0.16869454226754996 0.06974375624775299 0.022581427305191002 0.004054581610644
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0958 0.2646 0.10104009411972802 0.018743684410718997 0.00549209073523 0.0010831429853769999
31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3589 0.6432 0.36380517648741 0.12899637952906598 0.057848752132032 0.017970403062199
7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.3403 0.6906 0.320185975903838 0.202313388419788 0.10861622434002198 0.041468390730422994
4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.4969 0.7808 0.3588774122599871 0.15175492712645097 0.056075873492792 0.015482578417722001
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2374 0.5649 0.23169676266205702 0.102545136169625 0.033008883261278 0.008860670383127999
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.6687 0.8759 0.679070097859563 0.445952015124676 0.19664037826384198 0.1074437416918
28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.1573 0.4794 0.269422564973779 0.110335464902119 0.038130940734964994 0.010050732205902
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.1628 0.442 0.140779361295065 0.074321105377761 0.032047396838598 0.009594022874936
22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.2047 0.4639 0.220939815438024 0.057636464792535994 0.021356212051543998 0.005439331550374001
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0681 0.3172 0.11729698464177199 0.039439539676187005 0.007997934268077 0.0017891683738900002
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0333 0.1933 0.058800177658687 0.015630900951723998 0.0024146587470949997 0.00043832123617800004
12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0019 0.3722 0.103607930809959 0.04229464159168799 0.013482186680815002 0.0023380966995020006
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1705 0.4403 0.160055504585419 0.064458009896088 0.018781307131423 0.004327699117623
18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.9080000000000001 0.9282 0.081 0.3145 0.15290209449973402 0.05196180722051099 0.01564306448544 0.00321889697574
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.16 0.5643 0.264783490061127 0.11313495114829801 0.032140183180042005 0.00916690803052
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0005 0.0383 0.008279153484669 0.0028204735804970003 0.00072650664474 9.861603248299999e-05
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.093 0.3302 0.163758037173703 0.056850966702172004 0.017268852593049 0.003638371303529
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.2389 0.5426 0.250231056562453 0.069981653595991 0.025863338962372997 0.006272653112445
24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.147 0.3907 0.10465969306313198 0.029329702387714 0.005587241322035 0.0009736551420810001
20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.064 0.1971 0.048783196464964006 0.014124011741483998 0.0028842179138090004 0.0004133643738530001
1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0593 0.1973 0.037031884872746 0.007710506904984 0.000978961263767 0.00012219409971299999
3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.6380000000000001 1.232 0.0176 0.0813 0.009963897037146 0.00298364093576 0.0006704012095499999 9.5466916224e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1034 0.2937 0.104561618469806 0.022925782183697997 0.006365140741344 0.0010255583905950001

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140613-180212" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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