2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140613-180212.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0593 0.1973 0.037031884872746 0.007710506904984 0.000978961263767 0.00012219409971299999
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0333 0.1933 0.058800177658687 0.015630900951723998 0.0024146587470949997 0.00043832123617800004
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0958 0.2646 0.10104009411972802 0.018743684410718997 0.00549209073523 0.0010831429853769999
19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1471 0.3876 0.155104058949385 0.038910451578015995 0.012403492207238001 0.0024958695626479998
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0005 0.0383 0.008279153484669 0.0028204735804970003 0.00072650664474 9.861603248299999e-05
25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.0263 0.591 0.16869454226754996 0.06974375624775299 0.022581427305191002 0.004054581610644
20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.064 0.1971 0.048783196464964006 0.014124011741483998 0.0028842179138090004 0.0004133643738530001
3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.6380000000000001 1.232 0.0176 0.0813 0.009963897037146 0.00298364093576 0.0006704012095499999 9.5466916224e-05
29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.2968 0.6312 0.23427821529736603 0.086035327840425 0.024048501541522996 0.005789838268743
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0681 0.3172 0.11729698464177199 0.039439539676187005 0.007997934268077 0.0017891683738900002
24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.147 0.3907 0.10465969306313198 0.029329702387714 0.005587241322035 0.0009736551420810001
12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0019 0.3722 0.103607930809959 0.04229464159168799 0.013482186680815002 0.0023380966995020006
18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.9080000000000001 0.9282 0.081 0.3145 0.15290209449973402 0.05196180722051099 0.01564306448544 0.00321889697574
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1705 0.4403 0.160055504585419 0.064458009896088 0.018781307131423 0.004327699117623
22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.2047 0.4639 0.220939815438024 0.057636464792535994 0.021356212051543998 0.005439331550374001
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2374 0.5649 0.23169676266205702 0.102545136169625 0.033008883261278 0.008860670383127999
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.093 0.3302 0.163758037173703 0.056850966702172004 0.017268852593049 0.003638371303529
23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1034 0.2937 0.104561618469806 0.022925782183697997 0.006365140741344 0.0010255583905950001
28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.1573 0.4794 0.269422564973779 0.110335464902119 0.038130940734964994 0.010050732205902
4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.4969 0.7808 0.3588774122599871 0.15175492712645097 0.056075873492792 0.015482578417722001
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5106 0.7761 0.456219560237007 0.149388314631632 0.07300735623557 0.028073586699386
14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.6890000000000001 0.3406 0.6283 0.348098619736154 0.11932127505911 0.052548030705685 0.015998384714489
31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3589 0.6432 0.36380517648741 0.12899637952906598 0.057848752132032 0.017970403062199
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.2389 0.5426 0.250231056562453 0.069981653595991 0.025863338962372997 0.006272653112445
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.16 0.5643 0.264783490061127 0.11313495114829801 0.032140183180042005 0.00916690803052
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.1628 0.442 0.140779361295065 0.074321105377761 0.032047396838598 0.009594022874936
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.5281 0.7977 0.451933336780933 0.244662994075212 0.091031922602339 0.037620425376888
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.4793 0.7861 0.4418167982395971 0.30165609619753997 0.17700540664811498 0.074872288374719
7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.3403 0.6906 0.320185975903838 0.202313388419788 0.10861622434002198 0.041468390730422994
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7386 0.9252 0.6666505471450022 0.466073738132324 0.282462112003233 0.12854984842049197
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.6687 0.8759 0.679070097859563 0.445952015124676 0.19664037826384198 0.1074437416918
6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.5589999999999999 0.9713 0.9985 0.806672340962142 0.6979628918684498 0.564891003757246 0.45123319326575

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140613-180212" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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