2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140614-000045.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi

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Suggested facets: group

Link rowid country country_id group spi ▼ spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0555 0.1963 0.036780895058992 0.007677398475572 0.001020113499434 0.00013144804098
3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.6380000000000001 1.232 0.0023 0.028 0.002338868676836 0.000696787252544 0.000154974779931 2.5537700390999998e-05
20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.0528 0.1834 0.044428920362229 0.013085771557331998 0.0030408298757449996 0.00042695315464199993
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0326 0.1882 0.056197564212007 0.015170953218345 0.002458131496099 0.000454441704566
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0017 0.0406 0.010596202167916999 0.0035742405721959996 0.000910329009373 0.00012562468710100003
24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.1476 0.3929 0.105255659759807 0.029588234023322002 0.005945628396935001 0.001057480534099
23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1038 0.2969 0.105639052954327 0.026131519907867 0.0072477901368630014 0.0011678909139849999
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0925 0.2607 0.10017206087343199 0.020040613788268997 0.005826035625585 0.001168511637762
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0691 0.322 0.119321429185419 0.039854579736677005 0.008519420090973 0.001937669604364
12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0016 0.3714 0.121862190073512 0.04968727437262099 0.015845231368468 0.002750102491457
19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1405 0.3794 0.152016582287465 0.04258368200169899 0.013610225572133998 0.002738313387584
25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.028 0.59 0.196952471182887 0.081478640478858 0.026443476878122003 0.004760306451994
18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.9080000000000001 0.9282 0.0891 0.316 0.154879091349284 0.053243113856098 0.016926270765173997 0.0035363512405390003
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.0866 0.3269 0.162275407919881 0.056014409520873 0.018396493869439 0.0038802417637880003
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1706 0.4469 0.162104748954499 0.065299971798067 0.020219380708881 0.004703574874326999
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.2329 0.5399 0.24867867370592697 0.07667286946482099 0.02827593444071 0.006874377277919
29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.3087 0.6375 0.237601289698803 0.08724291108029401 0.026150311870358 0.006295593081855
22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.2015 0.4534 0.21554434246240803 0.06161569195457799 0.022943496243145 0.005853805835686
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.1618 0.5669 0.264722097149243 0.113653245827749 0.033675278504947996 0.009753098661943
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2397 0.5682 0.233393776579798 0.103303005295502 0.034923921157472 0.009487086308756
28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.1537 0.4738 0.26562110779519604 0.109082064634083 0.040302365931124996 0.010616242495646999
4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.4882 0.7733 0.35299288474018603 0.14909657332426998 0.058471171125942 0.016270857229176
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.537 0.8995 0.38210964869871206 0.201910872679034 0.08723150729344399 0.024459262071407
14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.6890000000000001 0.3368 0.6331 0.35087743932471405 0.12957440684931698 0.05702526413734999 0.017499015554612
31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3692 0.6528 0.367643661397344 0.14193632977935902 0.063691008853354 0.019776043096311
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5228 0.7838 0.45942818699434995 0.157618202940715 0.077098888107021 0.030056348724907003
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.5369 0.8015 0.45503501488063397 0.24601385315582602 0.094090614642979 0.039565907075767
7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.4074 0.7718 0.370268312556236 0.23456969088361398 0.125596359801523 0.04768594682653201
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.6706 0.8833 0.684593663677859 0.448062149938048 0.201017254250532 0.11193590366594901
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.0533 0.3007 0.10634623482858502 0.071885700849707 0.042343640888002 0.021500871731755
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7365 0.9229 0.664796448676131 0.46361176455793607 0.29414578608573905 0.134268940764052
6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.5589999999999999 0.9687 0.998 0.809526071815375 0.700023476224802 0.566452864593203 0.4592362514101479

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-000045" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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